Bitcoin Holds Below $115K as Altcoin Momentum Fades and Risk-Off Mood Prevails

The long-anticipated “altseason” narrative is losing traction, as traders rotate back into major cryptocurrencies or retreat to the sidelines amid renewed macro uncertainty and waning risk appetite.

Bitcoin (BTC) remained subdued below $115,000 on Tuesday after a weekend selloff shaved nearly $6,000 off local highs and triggered over $1 billion in liquidations across leveraged long positions. While markets have since stabilized, sentiment remains fragile following fresh U.S. tariffs announced by former President Donald Trump and a lackluster performance in crypto ETF flows.

As of Tuesday afternoon in Asia, BTC hovered near $114,200 — largely flat on the day — and still trading below the key $115,000–$118,000 range that had recently served as short-term support.

Ethereum Outperforms, For Now

Ether (ETH) showed relative strength, rebounding toward $3,650 after dipping below $3,550 over the weekend. The move was supported by steady institutional demand and persistent inflows despite broader market caution.

“Although Bitcoin has yet to reclaim the $115,000 level, Ethereum has almost fully retraced its weekly decline,” said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, in a note to CoinDesk. “Treasury strategies, IPO pipelines, and the hunt for the next MicroStrategy are all driving interest. We remain constructive on the ongoing bull cycle.”

Altcoins Lose Steam

In contrast, altcoins have struggled to maintain recent momentum. Solana (SOL) has dropped nearly 20% from last week’s highs, while XRP has stalled near $2.98 despite broader market stabilization.

The weakening altcoin sentiment reflects a shift in positioning, as the once-confident narrative around “altseason” has faded. Many traders are now de-risking or reallocating capital into high-liquidity majors like BTC and ETH.

Macro Headwinds Mount

Much of the caution stems from broader macro pressures. Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report, coupled with renewed trade tensions from Washington, has pushed global investors toward safer assets. Crypto markets have not been spared, as shown by ETF outflows and declining spot volume.

Friday also marked the second-largest outflow day for bitcoin spot ETFs and the fourth-largest for ether ETFs — undermining hopes that institutional flows would act as a stabilizing force.

Strategic Outlook

Despite the drawdown, some firms are maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance. QCP Capital, in a Monday client note, described the move as corrective rather than capitulatory.

“The structure of the market remains broadly bullish,” the firm said, pointing to increased BTC options activity — particularly 29AUG25 call flys targeting $124,000 — as evidence that sophisticated investors are positioning for a potential upside breakout.

Put skew remains elevated but has yet to reach panic levels. According to QCP, a sustained move above $115,000, combined with improved ETF inflows and compressing implied volatility, could flip sentiment quickly.

What Comes Next

For now, traders are watching ETF flow data closely as a key gauge of institutional conviction. A recovery in inflows and easing macro tensions could pave the way for a renewed rally. However, continued outflows and fading risk appetite — particularly in altcoins — could lead to further de-risking before markets find a stronger base.

Until clearer signals emerge, the crypto market remains in wait-and-see mode, caught between cautious optimism and deepening uncertainty.