Crypto Extends Losses as Markets Brace for Fed Signals from FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole

Cryptocurrencies and related equities slumped further on Tuesday as investors grew cautious ahead of a pivotal week for U.S. monetary policy. Market participants are closely watching Wednesday’s release of the July FOMC meeting minutes and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, fearing a more hawkish tone from the central bank.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3.2% in the last 24 hours, slipping below $114,000. Ether (ETH) dropped 5.3% to under $4,200, while XRP sank 6.2%. Cardano’s ADA slid 8%, dragging the broader crypto market down by 3.2%.

Losses were steeper among crypto-linked equities. Shares of bitcoin miner Marathon Digital (MARA) fell 5.7%, Coinbase (COIN) declined 5.8%, and MicroStrategy (MSTR) — the largest public holder of BTC — ended the session down 7.4%.

In contrast, traditional equities held up relatively better: the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended flat, the S&P 500 dipped 0.59%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 1.5%. The outsized drop in digital assets highlights their heightened sensitivity to shifts in interest rate expectations due to their dependence on abundant liquidity.

A Critical Week for Macro Catalysts

Investors now face a week packed with market-moving events. On August 20 at 2 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve will publish minutes from its July 29–30 policy meeting, expected to offer clues on officials’ inflation concerns and the impact of tariffs. From August 21–23, central bankers and economists gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Powell is scheduled to deliver his keynote on August 22 at 10 a.m. ET.

Together, the minutes and Powell’s address could shape expectations for the September FOMC meeting — and influence the trajectory of risk assets, particularly crypto.

Eight Macro Themes the Fed May Consider Before Cutting Rates

1. Tariffs’ Lagging Impact
   Many companies have absorbed tariff costs to avoid passing them to consumers. But as margins thin, firms may soon raise prices — keeping inflation sticky and deterring near-term rate cuts.
2. Persistent Inflation Pressures
   Although consumer inflation has moderated, producer price data remains elevated. This suggests underlying cost pressures continue to build, complicating the Fed’s easing calculus.
3. Corporate Warnings
   U.S. executives are signaling they may be forced to pass tariff costs onto consumers. That could stoke a fresh wave of inflation, making September an unlikely window for policy easing.
4. Conflicting Economic Signals
   Slower job growth and solid consumer spending present a mixed macro picture. The Fed may prefer to wait for clearer evidence before adjusting rates.
5. Policy Crosscurrents
   Tariffs intersect with unpredictable fiscal and trade dynamics, increasing the likelihood of unintended outcomes. This uncertainty could push Powell toward a more cautious message at Jackson Hole.
6. Historical Parallels
   The 2018–2019 tariff cycle triggered delayed inflation and forced the Fed to proceed carefully. Powell may lean on that precedent to justify a “wait-and-see” approach.
7. Early Data Warnings
   Preliminary August data on manufacturing and services, due Thursday, could reveal tariff-related pressures are intensifying. Powell may cite these forward-looking indicators as a reason for restraint.
8. Divisions Within the Fed
   The FOMC minutes may show growing divergence between hawks and doves. Powell may emphasize the need for consensus — often favoring patience over preemptive action.

Crypto at a Crossroads

For digital assets, the stakes are high. Higher-for-longer interest rates reduce market liquidity, raise capital costs for miners, and depress trading volumes across exchanges. A hawkish Powell could accelerate the current downturn in tokens and crypto equities.

Still, should the Fed surprise with a dovish pivot or hint at flexibility, markets may stage a short-term rebound. Until then, caution remains the dominant sentiment.