Bitcoin held by so-called “conviction buyers” has risen to nearly 4 million BTC, a roughly 300% increase since late 2025, pointing to a decisive shift in the asset’s supply dynamics.

Figures from BitGo, cited by Bitfinex, show that an increasing share of bitcoin is being accumulated by long-term holders—entities characterized by minimal spending and strong holding behavior. The trend signals a steady migration of realized value into investors with high conviction.

At current prices near $80,000, these holdings are valued at more than $320 billion.

“Even if the precise methodology behind the ‘conviction buyers’ metric isn’t fully transparent, the broader takeaway is clear,” said Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics. “Periods of tightening liquid supply combined with renewed demand have historically preceded bitcoin’s strongest rallies.”

Bitfinex noted that the latest accumulation wave marks the largest two-quarter increase in conviction buying since the rebound from the 2020 COVID-19 market crash. This group includes both institutional players and long-term individual investors.

Importantly, these coins are separate from the roughly 5.6 million BTC that has remained dormant for over a decade, according to developer Jameson Lopp. With total circulating supply at about 20.03 million BTC, a growing share is effectively being removed from active circulation.

Analysts also highlighted that more bitcoin is moving off exchanges and into wallets tied to low-activity holders, further constraining liquid supply in the market.

This shift is being reinforced by institutional accumulation and corporate treasury strategies. Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded corporate holder of bitcoin, recently increased its stash to 818,869 BTC—acquired for nearly $62 billion—and is currently sitting on around $4.6 billion in unrealized gains.

As more supply migrates into these long-term holders, the amount of bitcoin available for trading continues to shrink, increasing the potential for a supply shock if demand accelerates.

Research from CEX.IO adds to the bullish structural narrative, showing that nearly 70% of recently acquired bitcoin is now in profit. This tends to reduce sell-side pressure, as investors are less likely to exit positions during short-term pullbacks.

According to CEX.IO analysts, a higher share of profitable holders helps stabilize the market by lowering the intensity of reactive selling.

“Investors who understand bitcoin’s long-term value typically focus on accumulation, especially with more options now available to borrow against BTC,” said Ran Hammer, vice president of business development at Orbs. “That effectively removes more supply from circulation.”

Connor Howe, CEO and co-founder of Enso, said bitcoin’s scarcity thesis is increasingly being reflected in real market behavior.

“With ETF inflows and institutional demand becoming more structural, a larger portion of supply is shifting into conviction hands,” Howe said. “That could make future supply constraints far more pronounced as demand builds.”