Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level in six years, highlighting strong holding sentiment as the asset trades steadily around $94,000.

Meanwhile, ARK Invest has dramatically raised its long-term Bitcoin price target, predicting the cryptocurrency could reach as high as $2.4 million by 2030 in a bullish scenario. The updated projection accounts for changes in Bitcoin’s active supply, which removes coins that are lost or held for extended periods.

This bullish forecast represents a 60% increase from ARK’s earlier estimate made in January 2024, implying a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. In its base case, ARK sees Bitcoin reaching $1.2 million (53% CAGR), while even the bearish case suggests a rise to $500,000 (32% CAGR).

David Puell, an analyst at the Cathie Wood-led firm, developed the revised projections based on Bitcoin’s potential market share across several sectors. His model incorporates Bitcoin’s growing role as a store of value, institutional investment, use in emerging markets as a safe asset, treasury adoption by corporations and governments, and the emergence of financial services built directly on the Bitcoin blockchain.

Last November, Puell had forecast Bitcoin would close 2024 between $104,000 and $124,000. The actual year-end price was $93,440, before Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $109,000 in January. The asset later corrected, dipping to around $74,500 earlier this month.

Part of Bitcoin’s latest rebound is attributed to a steady decline in exchange balances. Glassnode data shows that BTC held on centralized exchanges has fallen from approximately 3 million in November 2024 to 2.6 million now. This trend suggests more investors are opting for self-custody, reducing sell-side liquidity and strengthening bullish market dynamics.