Maelstrom co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, fueled by heavy borrowing, could eventually create a major credit event. He argues that government support and aggressive liquidity injections would follow, potentially becoming the next major catalyst for bitcoin.

Circle shares decline as investors weigh ARC token impact on 2026 forecast

Circle shares fell around 3% in pre-market trading after the stablecoin issuer reported stronger earnings but missed revenue expectations.

Clear Street said Circle’s adjusted EBITDA was consistent with Wall Street projections despite a 2% revenue shortfall. The firm highlighted a better-than-expected RLDC margin of 41.2% and said stronger business performance may have offset concerns tied to Coinbase’s Hyperliquid agreement. It added that Circle’s underlying operations appear healthier if the company recognizes the anticipated $160 million in ARC token sales this year.

Compass Point described the results as a mixed outcome, noting that Circle’s higher 2026 guidance was largely supported by non-recurring ARC token pre-sales. The firm also pointed to continued development of the Arc blockchain, Circle Payments Network, and AI-driven payment services.

TeraWulf advances AI infrastructure strategy with Anthropic partnership

TeraWulf confirmed its second-quarter performance following the announcement of a $19 billion, 20-year data-center lease deal with Anthropic. The agreement covers 401 MW of capacity at the company’s Kentucky Justified campus and helped high-performance computing leasing account for 71% of Q2 revenue.

The company is also constructing 336 MW of capacity at its Lake Mariner location and acquired a gigawatt-scale Kentucky site in May. TeraWulf shares moved more than 1% higher before the market opened.

ADP data shows July hiring growth misses forecasts

Private-sector employment growth weakened in July, with ADP reporting an increase of 44,000 jobs, down from 98,000 in June and below economists’ expectations of 70,000.

Markets showed minimal reaction as investors awaited Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls report from the government, which remains the week’s key labor market event.

Citadel records best monthly gain in four years

Citadel’s flagship Wellington fund climbed 5.9% in July, marking its strongest monthly performance in four years, according to CNBC. The fund is now up 12% on the year.

Citadel’s tactical trading and equity funds also delivered double-digit returns during the month. Some of the gains came from positions acquired after the AI-focused Situational Awareness portfolio managed by Leopold Aschenbrenner suffered losses before rebounding sharply.

SpaceX shares continue falling after earnings report

SpaceX shares extended their post-earnings decline, dropping 11% to $111.80 ahead of the opening bell.

JPMorgan raised its price target from $225 to $240 but warned that the company’s capital spending could approach $200 billion annually in 2027 and 2028, creating additional pressure on free cash flow.

The bank also highlighted a coming lock-up expiration involving 911.5 million shares, which could substantially increase the number of shares available for trading.

Curve founder says uncertainty creates opportunities for DeFi

Michael Egorov, founder of Curve Finance and Yield Basis, said the same market uncertainty causing concern among investors could help generate returns in decentralized finance.

Egorov argued that Federal Reserve policy has less influence on DeFi than many assume. While higher rates make tokenized Treasury products more attractive, he said on-chain yield strategies may become more competitive if interest rates eventually decline.

He explained that volatile conditions increase trading activity, which boosts fee generation for liquidity providers. Unlike predictable income from lending or Treasury products, trading fees can rise quickly when markets become unsettled.

Egorov believes volatility is a key source of opportunity for DeFi rather than a negative factor.

Bitfinex identifies 10-year real yields as key bitcoin driver

Crypto exchange Bitfinex said bitcoin’s macro outlook depends heavily on movements in the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield.

The exchange noted that the yield has not remained above 2.5% since bitcoin was created and currently stands near 2.41%. A sustained move above that level, Bitfinex said, could remove an important supportive factor for BTC.

Rising bond yields since the Iran conflict began in late February have pressured risk assets, although equities have continued setting records while bitcoin and gold have lagged.

Zcash leads crypto market recovery

Privacy-focused cryptocurrency Zcash outperformed the broader crypto market during a rebound.

ZEC gained nearly 6% over 24 hours, while bitcoin and ether posted smaller increases of 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Other top performers included PUMP, HYPE, and LIT.

Arthur Hayes says AI debt crisis could fuel bitcoin’s next major rally

Arthur Hayes argues that the AI boom is more comparable to a debt-driven financial expansion like 2008 than the earnings-focused dot-com bubble.

The BitMEX co-founder said technology companies are borrowing heavily to build data centers filled with rapidly depreciating chips. He believes the biggest risk will emerge when AI-related capital spending slows, which he expects could happen between late 2027 and 2028.

Hayes predicts that lenders may continue extending credit until weaker AI companies and overleveraged borrowers begin to fail, triggering a wider financial shock. He expects governments in the U.S. and China to respond with major intervention and liquidity creation.

That wave of money printing, Hayes believes, could eventually drive bitcoin toward a $1 million price target.

In the short term, he views the recent AI-related market downturn, including Korea’s leveraged unwind, as a temporary correction within a broader bullish trend.

Bitcoin traded around $64,200 on Wednesday, remaining nearly unchanged over the week and continuing to hold within the range established since May.