Bitcoin’s foundational security layer — elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) — could be at risk in the coming decade, as advances in quantum computing threaten to unravel the mathematical assumptions that underpin public-key cryptography.

A new report from Capgemini highlights growing concerns that quantum breakthroughs may soon be capable of breaking widely used encryption schemes like ECC and RSA — the same primitives that secure crypto wallets, authenticate transactions, and protect billions in blockchain-based assets.

While the report doesn’t explicitly single out Bitcoin (BTC), its implications are clear. Shor’s algorithm, a quantum method designed to efficiently solve the discrete logarithm and factoring problems, could compromise ECC — the cryptographic basis of Bitcoin’s private keys. That would put a significant portion of on-chain funds, particularly those with exposed public keys, at immediate risk if a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) is realized.

Capgemini’s survey of 1,000 enterprises across 13 countries found that 70% are actively planning or implementing post-quantum cryptography (PQC), a next-generation class of algorithms designed to withstand quantum attacks. Yet adoption remains early: just 15% of organizations were identified as “quantum-safe champions,” and only 2% of global cybersecurity budgets are currently allocated to PQC readiness.

The report also flagged the threat of “harvest now, decrypt later” tactics, where adversaries collect encrypted data today with the intent to break it once quantum capabilities mature. In the case of Bitcoin, over 25% of all coins have public keys that are already exposed, including those in early pay-to-pubkey formats — such as the wallets attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto.

In response, Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp and collaborators recently released a draft proposal outlining a phased strategy to freeze coins protected by legacy cryptography. The proposal advocates migrating funds to quantum-resistant formats, aiming to preemptively secure dormant or vulnerable holdings before attackers can exploit them.

“This proposal is radically different from any in Bitcoin’s history — just as the threat posed by quantum computing is radically different from any other threat in Bitcoin’s history,” the authors stated, as reported by CoinDesk.

Although the timeline for “Q-Day” — the theoretical moment a quantum computer can break current encryption — remains uncertain, recent breakthroughs in error correction, algorithmic efficiency, and quantum hardware suggest it may arrive sooner than previously expected. Some researchers believe a CRQC could emerge before 2030.

Governments are beginning to act. The U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) intends to phase out RSA and ECC by 2035, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has finalized several PQC standards, including Kyber and Dilithium, for public implementation.

Major tech companies like Apple, AWS, and Cloudflare have already begun integrating PQC into their systems. However, no top 10 blockchain by market capitalization has transitioned to post-quantum infrastructure as of this week.

For now, the threat remains theoretical. But with quantum development accelerating, Bitcoin’s core cryptographic assumptions — once considered unbreakable — are now being reconsidered by developers, regulators, and institutional custodians alike.

As the industry moves closer to a potential cryptographic reset, proactive defense may be the only safeguard against a quantum disruption that could rewrite the rules of digital security.