Profit-Taking and Tariff Tensions Weigh on Bitcoin as July Ends

Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to close the week on a softer note, trading down 2.3% near $115,500 in Friday’s Asia session, as a wave of profit-taking and renewed U.S. tariffs put pressure on global risk assets.

$6B–$8B in Realized Gains Trigger Pullback

According to CryptoQuant, the final week of July saw between $6 billion and $8 billion in realized profits, marking the third significant distribution event of the 2023–2025 bull cycle. The selloff was driven largely by short-term holders and newer whale entities—wallets that accumulated BTC within the last 155 days.

On July 25, an OG whale offloaded 80,000 BTC, triggering a sharp increase in exchange inflows that peaked at 70,000 BTC in a single day—a level typically associated with aggressive exit strategies.

The ripple effect extended beyond BTC. Ethereum-based whales also exited risk, realizing up to $40 million daily in combined profits from assets like WBTC, USDT, and USDC.

Tariff Escalation Dampens Sentiment

Traders also digested fresh macro headwinds after President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs Thursday, with Canada notably among the targets. The policy shift rattled global markets, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 opening down 0.65% and Seoul’s KOSPI slipping in tandem.

Historically, BTC has tracked equity weakness in response to geopolitical trade actions. While that correlation has weakened in recent cycles, it remains a factor as risk sentiment retreats.

CoinGlass data shows nearly $260 million in long liquidations over a four-hour stretch, adding to downside pressure.

Signs of a Consolidation Phase

CryptoQuant noted that prior profit-taking events were typically followed by two to four months of sideways consolidation. The current setup appears to be following that script. U.S. appetite is fading, with the Coinbase premium flipping negative—indicating domestic buyers are no longer paying above global averages.

Enflux, a market-making firm, echoed a cautious tone: “Until BTC or ETH can reclaim recent local highs with conviction, we expect price action to remain rotational rather than trend-driven.”

Market Snapshot

• BTC: Down 2.3% at $115,500, within a consolidating range despite macro pressure.
• ETH: Holding near $3,800 after a 50% monthly gain in July, bolstered by ETF inflows and bullish cycle projections.
• Gold: Hit $3,296 before easing to $3,287 as dollar strength offset safe-haven bids.
• Nikkei 225: Down 0.65% in early Asia trade; Topix flat.
• S&P 500 Futures: Slightly lower as investors digest Big Tech earnings and await July’s U.S. jobs report.