CryptoQuant data points to mounting signs of seller exhaustion as large holders reduce exchange deposits, while traders turn their attention to an upcoming Bank of Japan meeting that could reshape global liquidity conditions.

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The current calm reflects more than central bank action. In its latest report, CryptoQuant said exchange inflows have fallen sharply from their November peaks, with whales pulling back deposits and easing near-term sell pressure. That retreat has allowed bitcoin to settle into a narrow trading range.

CryptoQuant also noted that whales booked more than $600 million in losses when bitcoin first slipped below $100,000, followed by an estimated $3.2 billion in cumulative realized losses. Short-term holders have been selling at negative profit margins since mid-November — a pattern that typically emerges only after sentiment has already capitulated. Historically, that combination has marked the point where selling pressure begins to fade.

That backdrop has kept bitcoin anchored near $92,000 despite a series of macro catalysts.

QCP cautioned that stability should not be mistaken for renewed conviction. The trading firm described a market still stuck in a holding pattern, noting that spot ETF inflows have improved only modestly and derivatives positioning remains defensive.

Focus is now shifting to Tokyo, where prediction markets overwhelmingly expect a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s December 19 meeting. QCP said the next major catalyst may come from Japan, where long-dated JGB yields are pressing multi-decade highs and policymakers have signaled unease with the pace of the move.

For now, markets remain steady, with the near-term trajectory likely to hinge on how Japan’s decision influences global risk appetite.

Market movement

• BTC: Bitcoin traded quietly between $91,000 and $92,000, showing little reaction to the Fed’s rate cut as subdued onchain flows kept volatility in check.
• ETH: Ether mirrored the muted tone, holding near $3,270 without a clear catalyst to break it out of its recent range.
• Gold: Gold advanced after the Fed’s cut despite lingering uncertainty over next year’s policy path, while silver hit a record on strong industrial demand and tight supply.
• Nikkei 225: Most Asia-Pacific equities rose following the Fed’s third rate cut of the year, though Japan’s Nikkei 225 pared early gains to slip 0.11%.