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Crypto Markets Brace for Fed Cuts as Token Unlocks Test Liquidity – 17/9/2025
Crypto markets are preparing for the start of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, with a 25-basis-point rate cut widely expected tomorrow. OKX Singapore CEO Gracie Lin warns that upcoming token unlocks and liquidity shocks could put markets to the test, with resilient liquidity separating winners from losers.
Polymarket and CME FedWatch both show a 25 bps cut priced in for the next FOMC meeting, while odds are rising for three total cuts by year-end. Polymarket anticipates more aggressive easing, while CME signals steady 25 bps steps, implying roughly 75 bps of cuts for 2025.
On-Chain Signals Show Market Confidence
Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $116,762, up 1.3% for the day and 4.7% weekly. Ethereum (ETH) sits at $4,502, rising 4.3% over the week. Some investors remain on the sidelines, waiting to see how markets react to the Fed announcement.
Exchange Flows Point to Reduced Selling
BTC exchange inflows have fallen to a seven-day average of 25,000—the lowest in over 18 months—with average deposit sizes halving to 0.57 BTC, indicating major holders are holding steady. ETH mirrors this trend, with inflows down to 783,000 from 1.8 million in August and average deposits dropping from 40–45 ETH to 30 ETH.
Stablecoins are flowing into exchanges, with USDT deposits peaking at $379 million in August and holding around $200 million, providing liquidity for a potential post-Fed rally.
Altcoins See Renewed Activity
High-beta altcoins are experiencing increased exchange activity, with seven-day transaction deposits rising to 55,000 from a 20,000–30,000 range, signaling potential profit-taking while BTC and ETH supply remains tight.
Token Unlocks Could Pressure Liquidity
September brings $4.5 billion in token unlocks, which may test market absorption. Lin notes:
“Stablecoins near $300 billion in supply, token unlocks are testing market depth, and major infrastructure upgrades like Nasdaq’s tokenized securities show crypto is integrating into the global financial system.”
With the Fed pivot largely priced in, the key focus is whether crypto’s liquidity, stablecoins, and exchange flows can absorb shocks and fuel the next leg higher for BTC.
Market Snapshot
- BTC: Above $116,500, buoyed by rate-cut expectations and technical factors, with caution ahead of the Fed meeting.
- ETH: Showing modest strength, supported by BTC momentum but facing macro and policy risks.
- Gold: Reaching record highs amid expected rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and global uncertainty, reinforcing safe-haven demand.
