Asia Morning Briefing: After CZ’s Pardon, SBF Clemency Odds Jump

It remains a long shot that FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried will be pardoned, but betting markets are showing renewed optimism after Binance’s Changpeng “CZ” Zhao had his criminal record wiped clean.

Pardon Speculation Heats Up

On prediction markets, traders are pricing in a slight but notable shift.
On Polymarket, odds of an SBF pardon climbed five percentage points to 12% following former President Donald Trump’s Thursday-night pardon of CZ. Over on Kalshi, the move was even sharper — up nine points to 16%.

The surge follows a months-long media effort by Bankman-Fried to reshape his public image. Earlier this year, he appeared on Tucker Carlson’s podcast as part of a broader conservative media outreach, framing his prosecution as politically motivated and positioning himself as a Republican donor punished by the establishment.

Behind the scenes, his parents are said to be cultivating relationships within Trump’s inner circle, quietly lobbying for clemency for their son’s 25-year prison sentence.

Markets Rethink Odds

Polymarket traders were caught off guard by Trump’s unexpected pardon of CZ, which sent ripples across crypto and political betting circles alike.
For most of the contract’s lifespan, the odds of an SBF pardon hovered between 20% and 40%, reflecting general skepticism about any potential leniency.

While prediction markets have a strong track record for accuracy, they can still underprice outlier outcomes — and a surprise SBF pardon could easily fit that pattern. It’s the kind of twist that might sound too implausible for The Altruists — the upcoming Netflix series chronicling FTX’s collapse — until it actually happens.

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Market Movement

Bitcoin (BTC): Rose 2.7% to about $110,700 on Thursday, rebounding from the prior day’s dip as investors positioned ahead of Friday’s U.S. inflation report.

Ether (ETH): Trading near $3,850, with analysts identifying a potential Wyckoff re-accumulation phase amid rising institutional inflows — fueling speculation of an $8,000–$10,000 target later this cycle.

Gold: Hovering around $4,126, up nearly 50% year-to-date after breaking above $4,000. Persistent geopolitical tensions, Fed policy uncertainty, and central bank demand continue to support prices, though Morgan Stanley cautions that elevated levels could temper jewelry and reserve purchases even as it lifts its 2026 forecast to $4,400.

Nikkei 225: Advanced 0.78% on Friday as Asia-Pacific markets rallied following confirmation of Trump–Xi talks set for next week.