Bitcoin, Ether Brace for $17B Options Expiry as Traders Watch Fed and Tech Earnings

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are heading into one of the largest options expiries of 2025, with contracts worth nearly $17 billion set to settle on Deribit this Friday. The event coincides with the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and a busy week of major tech company earnings, adding to expectations for heightened volatility.

Roughly 72,716 BTC call options and 54,945 BTC put options are due for settlement, representing a combined notional open interest of about $14.4 billion. For ether, open interest totals 375,225 call and 262,850 put contracts, equivalent to about $2.6 billion.

Options data show a heavy concentration in out-of-the-money (OTM) strikes — nearly 82.5% of open interest — suggesting traders are positioning for large potential swings rather than stable price action. Bitcoin’s open interest clusters around $120,000–$130,000 for calls and $100,000–$110,000 for puts.

With bitcoin trading near $113,000, prices are gravitating toward the max pain level of $114,000, the point where most contracts expire worthless. Analysts say such convergence often reflects market makers’ hedging flows rather than deliberate manipulation.

Ether’s max pain level sits near $4,110, just above its current price around $4,000, indicating a similar setup of compressed volatility before expiry.

According to Checkonchain, Deribit’s dominance in the global bitcoin options market has declined from 80% before IBIT launched options in late 2024 to about 44% today, matching IBIT’s share — a sign of deepening competition in the crypto derivatives space.

As traders weigh the Fed’s rate path and macro catalysts from Big Tech earnings, both bitcoin and ether markets appear poised for sharp movements heading into month-end.