Crypto Traders Bet Big on Bitcoin and Ether as Inflation Data Seen as Sideshow

Traders in both the on-chain and centralized options markets are making bold bets on bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), undeterred by concerns that upcoming U.S. inflation data might stall the ongoing crypto rally.

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, surged to fresh record highs above $121,000 during Monday’s Asian trading session, gaining 2.7% over the past 24 hours. Year-to-date, BTC is now up nearly 30%, including a 13% gain so far in July, according to CoinDesk data.

Ether has followed bitcoin’s momentum, climbing 3% to approach $3,050. Other leading digital assets like XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL) also posted gains between 3% and 5%.

Activity on the decentralized options platform Derive reflects this bullish sentiment. A significant portion of open interest is clustered around the $130,000 strike price for bitcoin calls expiring on September 26.

“Almost 20% of open interest on Derive’s September expiry for BTC is concentrated at the $130K call, signaling traders expect steady price increases over the next three months,” said Nick Forster, founder of Derive.

For ether, around 45% of open interest on the July 18 expiry is concentrated at the $3,400 strike, which alone represented 16% of ETH’s weekend trading volume. “That suggests traders are looking for a breakout in ETH,” Forster noted.

“Volatility remains moderate compared to the 2020-2021 period, but we’re seeing growing directional conviction, particularly in ether. We’re watching closely for confirmation of this trend in the coming week,” he added.

Centralized options markets are echoing the optimism. On Deribit, calls—bullish bets—are trading at higher premiums than puts across multiple expiries for both BTC and ETH.

Inflation Data Takes a Backseat

The major macro event this week is Tuesday’s release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Economists surveyed by FactSet expect the June CPI to rise 0.23% month-on-month, translating to an annualized rate of 2.6%, up from May’s 2.4%. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise 3% year-on-year.

For years, CPI prints have been closely monitored by both traditional and crypto markets due to their influence on Federal Reserve policy decisions. But this time, the crypto community seems unfazed.

The founders of the LondonCryptoClub newsletter argue that broader macro forces—such as fiscal expansion, a weakening U.S. dollar, and rising global liquidity—are fueling the bull market, rather than the prospect of Fed rate cuts.

“We don’t think CPI matters much here. We’re in a ‘Goldilocks’ macro environment: the U.S. economy is slowing but not crashing, and while inflation is a bit sticky, it’s not accelerating enough to push the Fed from cuts back to hikes,” they told CoinDesk. “Meanwhile, a weaker dollar and growing global money supply keep financial conditions loose.”

They also pointed to a shift in U.S. fiscal policy. “With the Trump administration reversing course on deficit reduction, we’re back to the fiscal dominance playbook we saw during the Biden era.”

Additionally, President Trump’s recently passed tax legislation is projected to add over $3 trillion to the national debt over time, further contributing to loose financial conditions.

“So right now, risk appetite and bitcoin prices are being driven less by Fed expectations and more by the fiscal dominance narrative and a softer dollar,” the founders said. “Hence, sensitivity to Fed policy—and the CPI report—is much lower.”

Crypto Week and Institutional Demand Provide Tailwinds

Meanwhile, Washington’s attention is turning to crypto. Dubbed “Crypto Week” by the Trump administration, this week could see the House of Representatives debating several key pieces of crypto legislation, including the Genius Act, the Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act.

Positive regulatory developments could further shield bitcoin and other crypto assets from broader macroeconomic volatility.

“The bitcoin market is moving strongly, fueled by demand from corporate treasuries and speculative interest,” said Alexander Blume, CEO of SEC-registered investment adviser Two Prime, in comments to CoinDesk. “With this being dubbed ‘Crypto Week’ by the Trump administration, I expect more positive news to emerge.”

Blume added that bitcoin is increasingly moving independently of the broader economy. “Plus, the perception that the Fed has become more politicized has dulled the impact of CPI data on rate expectations anyway.”