Bitcoin’s recent calm may be short-lived as historical trends in Wall Street’s volatility gauge, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), suggest turbulence could return in August.

The VIX—which tracks the expected 30-day volatility of the S&P 500—has steadily declined since April, recently reaching a five-month low of 14.92, according to TradingView. Historically, this drop often sets the stage for a volatility spike in August, a pattern noted by Barchart.com.

Over the past 15 years, August has posted the highest average monthly gain for the VIX at 13.68%, with increases in 10 of those years. The most notable was a 135% surge in 2015.

If this pattern holds, Wall Street could be on the verge of renewed market stress—an environment where risk assets like bitcoin often react sharply.

Dubbed the “Fear Gauge,” the VIX typically climbs as equity markets decline and falls when stocks rise. A spike in volatility could therefore signal downside risk for broader markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin, currently trading at $117,658, has shown an increasing correlation with Wall Street sentiment, particularly tech stocks. Its implied volatility metrics—measuring expected price fluctuations—have recently mirrored the VIX, reinforcing bitcoin’s evolution into a macro-sensitive asset.

However, since November, BTC’s 30-day implied volatility has sharply declined, breaking its positive correlation with spot price. Whether the seasonal VIX rebound reignites volatility in crypto markets remains to be seen—but the historical setup suggests a shift could be imminent.