Bitcoin Eyes Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech With Cautious Volatility Bets

With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set to speak Friday morning at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, crypto markets are watching closely — but not necessarily bracing for fireworks.

Despite widespread anticipation around Powell’s remarks, bitcoin’s expected price swings appear relatively contained. According to Pulkit Goyal, head of trading at Orbit Markets, BTC options are pricing in a move of approximately ±2.0% around the speech.

“Options markets are pointing to moderate volatility,” Goyal told CoinDesk. Orbit specializes in crypto options and structured derivatives.

Traders estimate potential price ranges using implied volatility — a metric that reflects the market’s forecast of price movement — derived from various strike prices and maturities. Currently, Volmex’s one-day implied volatility index (BVIV1D) has climbed to an annualized 49%, its highest since May 26, translating to a projected 2.5% 24-hour move. That’s more than double bitcoin’s 30-day average daily volatility of 1.18%.

However, implied volatility doesn’t indicate direction — it reflects the potential for price movement up or down.

Still, some traders are leaning bearish. If Powell’s tone turns out more neutral than dovish — a possibility that diverges from the market’s rate-cut expectations — it could spark downside movement in risk assets, including crypto. This has led to rising demand for puts.

“We’re seeing increased demand for downside hedging,” Goyal said. “Overnight 25-delta risk reversals are currently pricing puts six vols above calls, signaling concern over a less accommodative tone from Powell.”

While Powell’s speech may not spark major fireworks, derivatives markets suggest traders are quietly positioning for a surprise — with downside protection leading the charge.