Bitcoin’s current market decline has avoided two major signs of severe bear-market stress: a daily close below Realized Price and a negative aggregate NUPL reading. The fact that neither has occurred this cycle points to milder market-wide pressure compared with previous Bitcoin downturns.

During the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets, Bitcoin spent months trading below Realized Price. The current cycle has followed a different path, with no daily close beneath that level and the June low also remaining above it. Glassnode says that if Bitcoin continues to stay above the True Market Mean, the June bottom would be the least severe of the three bear-market lows in its comparison.

At the June bottom, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit dropped to approximately the same level recorded at the November 2022 low. That suggests a similar share of coins was sitting at a loss. However, the size of those unrealized losses was considerably smaller. NUPL, which tracks unrealized profits and losses across all Bitcoin holdings, remained positive throughout the cycle instead of falling below zero as it did during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.

A positive aggregate NUPL does not mean every holder is in profit. Individual coins and some long-term holders can still be underwater even when the broader metric remains positive. Similarly, trading above Realized Price does not guarantee profitability for every market participant.

Long-Term Holder Profitability

Glassnode identifies the $84,000–$85,000 range as the largest concentration of long-term-holder supply. While the zone represents a substantial amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors, it does not by itself indicate that these coins are profitable or that holders are preparing to sell.

The report places the mean MVRV price near $96,700. This measure combines Bitcoin’s Realized Price with its long-term average MVRV and indicates the level at which average holder profitability returns toward its historical norm. Investors who bought Bitcoin one to two years ago, particularly those who entered near the upper end of the trading range, would also be approaching break-even around this level.

On the downside, Glassnode places the True Market Mean near $77,000, making it an important support reference. Together, these levels provide a framework for assessing the recovery, while institutional demand and ETF flows offer additional insight into market strength.

Long-term-holder MVRV has remained above 1 throughout the current cycle, indicating that this group remains profitable on an aggregate basis. Selling pressure has also remained relatively contained. Weekly realized profits during the latest rally are only a fraction of the levels seen around the 2024 and 2025 market peaks, even though almost all short-term holders have returned to profit.

$95K–$97K Is the Next Major Hurdle

Bitcoin’s next significant resistance area is between $95,000 and $97,000, where the mean MVRV price coincides with important options positioning. According to the report, positive gamma was concentrated around the $95,000 strikes, while negative gamma accumulated between the current spot price and $92,000. Dealer hedging could increase volatility between spot and $92,000 before helping to suppress larger moves near $95,000.

Market demand has improved, but the available data does not guarantee that the recovery will continue. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $1.3 billion in inflows during the five days after the squeeze began, reversing two weeks of net outflows.

Spot trading activity has also strengthened. Twenty-four-hour volume has risen 121% from its August low, more than doubling since the rally started. However, the seven-day average remains approximately 30% below its level from a year earlier.

These factors provide some support for the recovery, but Bitcoin still faces important technical hurdles. A move below $84,000 would put the $77,000 True Market Mean back in focus. Meanwhile, a sustained break above $95,000–$97,000 would challenge the major resistance cluster. October price levels and broader macroeconomic developments could further influence the market’s direction.

The evidence points to a more resilient cycle rather than a complete break from historical patterns. Bitcoin has avoided a negative aggregate NUPL reading and has not closed below Realized Price. Profit-taking has also remained relatively limited, while ETF inflows and spot volume have recovered.

For now, $84,000 remains an important level for the recovery. Holding above it would preserve the potential path toward $96,700, while a break below $84,000 followed by a move toward $77,000 could cast doubt on the strength of the rebound.