Bitcoin Holds Above Key Support Despite Powell’s Hawkish Tone

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure but continues to hold above a crucial technical threshold following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s unexpectedly hawkish remarks that cast doubt on the likelihood of another rate cut in December.

After sliding as low as $109,250, near its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), BTC bounced to trade around $111,000 as of press time — signaling that bulls are still defending key support even as broader market sentiment turns cautious.

While maintaining levels above the 200-day SMA is a constructive sign for long-term momentum, the broader technical picture remains fragile. Bitcoin continues to trade below the Ichimoku cloud — a sign of short-term bearish bias. Prolonged consolidation beneath the cloud raises the risk of a deeper breakdown below the 200-day SMA, potentially opening the path toward the psychologically critical $100,000 zone.

A similar setup played out earlier this year, when February’s sustained weakness below the cloud preceded a sharp decline to the $75,000 area.

Adding to the downside pressure is renewed strength in the U.S. dollar. The dollar index (DXY) recently confirmed a bullish crossover between its 50- and 100-day SMAs, hinting at a potential double-bottom reversal. The 10-year Treasury yield has also rebounded above 4%, reinforcing dollar demand and weighing on risk assets such as bitcoin.

Derivatives data further reflect growing caution. According to Amberdata, bitcoin put options on Deribit are now trading at a 4%–5% implied volatility premium over calls at the front end — a clear sign that traders are hedging for more downside volatility in the near term.

For now, analysts say bitcoin must reclaim the Ichimoku cloud near $116,000 to reestablish bullish momentum and neutralize the risk of another drawdown. Until then, the path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside.