Bitcoin prices may be finding a near-term floor, but market behavior suggests investors are still leaning cautious, with lower leverage and declining volatility pointing to a defensive stance.

In its latest mid-March 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck report, VanEck highlighted a surge in demand for downside hedging, noting that traders are paying record premiums to protect against further declines.

According to the report, bitcoin’s 30-day average price dropped 19% compared to the prior period, while realized volatility fell from around 80 to just above 50. At the same time, futures funding rates eased to 2.7% from 4.1%, reflecting a pullback in leveraged positioning.

Options data reinforces the cautious outlook. The put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77 and reached 0.84 at its peak—the highest level since June 2021, during the China Bitcoin mining crackdown.

Over the past month, traders spent approximately $685 million on put options, while call premiums declined 12% to around $562 million. Relative to spot market volumes, put premiums climbed to roughly 4 basis points—an all-time high in VanEck’s records.

The report noted that this level is about three times higher than what was seen in mid-2022 following the Terra/Luna collapse and the Ethereum staking liquidity crisis.

Despite the elevated fear, VanEck pointed out that such extremes have historically coincided with market turning points rather than extended declines. Over the past six years, similar options market signals have been followed by average bitcoin gains of 13% over 90 days and 133% over 360 days.

The report also highlighted that on-chain activity remains weak, while miner selling pressure appears to be contained.