Bitcoin Pulls Back After FOMC Rally, But $100K Odds Continue to Rise

Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins experienced a 3% decline on Friday, as profit-taking followed Thursday’s FOMC-driven rally. Despite the short-term dip, analysts say the probability of BTC hitting $100K by mid-year is increasing, fueled by shifting macroeconomic conditions and bullish options positioning.

Market Recap

• Bitcoin slid from $86,000 to below $84,000, pulling total crypto market capitalization down by 3.2% in 24 hours.
• Ethereum (ETH) dropped below $2,000, while Solana (SOL) lost 5%.
• XRP gave back some of its gains, reducing Wednesday’s 10% rally to a 4.8% weekly increase.
• BNB continued its bullish momentum, now up over 8% this week.
• Tron (TRX) and Toncoin (TON) were the only major gainers, both rising 2%.

TRX’s rise coincided with its debut on the Solana blockchain, expanding its reach, while TON surged after new venture capital inflows totaling over $400 million.

FOMC Sparks Volatility, but BTC Sentiment Stays Strong

Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting gave Bitcoin a temporary lift past $85,000, as traders reacted to the Fed’s decision to slow quantitative tightening starting in April—a move many see as a step toward easing monetary policy.

• QCP Capital noted that traders are increasingly factoring in a more dovish Fed stance, leading to shifts in options market sentiment.
• Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, reported that the probability of BTC surpassing $100K by June 30 has climbed from 20% to nearly 30% in just 24 hours.
• Meanwhile, ETH’s probability of remaining above $2,000 by mid-year now sits at 50%, up from 40% earlier this week.

Options data from Derive.xyz also showed that 60% of ETH options traded in the last 24 hours were bullish calls, while 34% of BTC option volume reflected downside protection, suggesting a mix of bullish bets and risk hedging.

Key Levels & Market Outlook

Crypto analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro emphasized the importance of Bitcoin holding the $80,000 support level to maintain its uptrend.

• He pointed out that the overall crypto market has yet to reclaim its 200-day moving average, currently at $2.9 trillion in total market capitalization.
• A decisive move above this level could spark a new wave of buying, but failure to hold support could lead to further short-term corrections.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

With profit-taking in play, Bitcoin’s near-term direction will depend on whether it can hold key technical levels. However, despite short-term volatility, the rising probability of BTC reaching $100K suggests long-term bullish sentiment remains intact.