Arca is blaming Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC for last week’s Bitcoin drop, directly challenging Michael Saylor’s claim that AI-driven capital rotation was responsible for the selloff.

While Saylor argued that the AI infrastructure boom is absorbing capital at an unprecedented pace and pressuring risk assets like Bitcoin, Arca says the real driver was internal to Strategy itself.

In a weekly note, Arca CIO Jeff Dorman said the “selling pressure last week was clearly due to the Saylor/MSTR news,” rejecting what he described as “gaslighting from MSTR and other Bitcoin bulls.”

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell nearly 14% to around $60,000 last week. The move came shortly after Strategy disclosed on June 1 that it had sold 32 BTC in the prior week, while still holding about 845,256 BTC worth billions.

Saylor maintained that the decline was tied to broader macro conditions, arguing that massive AI infrastructure spending is pulling capital across markets. In his view, this does not undermine Bitcoin, but instead strengthens its long-term appeal as scarce digital capital.

Arca disagrees with that framing.

Dorman argued the issue wasn’t the relatively small 32 BTC sale—worth about $2.5 million—but what it signaled. In his view, it raised concerns that Strategy may need to sell significantly more Bitcoin to meet dividend obligations tied to its preferred shares, including STRC.

He also said Strategy’s recent financial decisions have unsettled the market, noting that the company used available cash to pay down zero-coupon debt and then surprised investors with a Bitcoin sale that barely covers a month of preferred dividends. With only a few months of cash runway left, he said the market is now focused on what comes next.

A possible bullish path

Dorman outlined a scenario that could restore confidence: if Strategy announces via an 8-K filing that it has raised $2–$4 billion through MSTR equity sales and Bitcoin sales, enough to secure dividend payments through September 2028. He believes that kind of buffer would remove forced-selling fears and likely trigger a strong rally.

However, he does not expect that outcome.

Instead, Dorman suggested Saylor is highly committed to continuing Bitcoin accumulation, which could result in smaller, recurring BTC sales to cover dividends—creating ongoing selling pressure.

He warned that when a major long-term buyer turns into a forced seller, markets tend to keep pricing in that stress until conditions deteriorate further.

A silver lining in market behavior

Despite the volatility, Dorman pointed to a constructive development: Bitcoin initially declined without dragging the broader crypto market down, suggesting investors are becoming more selective in how they price risk across assets.

Bitcoin dominance fell for a second consecutive week, slipping below 58% for the first time since September.

Earlier in the week, BTC weakened on its own specific news while other crypto assets held steady—an indication, he said, that the market is maturing and differentiating between individual digital assets.

By the end of the week, however, the selling pressure intensified and most major cryptocurrencies eventually moved lower alongside Bitcoin.