U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs are heading toward their second-largest monthly outflow in history, with an estimated $800 million set to leave the funds by the end of April. This comes after a challenging start to the year, with $3.56 billion in outflows recorded in February and $767 million in March.

Despite calls from some crypto advocates to “sell bonds, buy Bitcoin” in light of tariff-induced volatility affecting the U.S. Treasury market, institutional investors are not following suit. Data indicates that Bitcoin ETFs are still losing institutional support as bond investments gain traction.

On Monday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $80 billion in three-month Treasury bills at an interest rate of 4.225%, a slight increase from the previous auction’s 4.175%. Additionally, $68 billion in six-month Treasury bills were sold at an interest rate of 4.06%, up from 4.00% in the last auction.

The strong demand for Treasury bills was evident in the bid-to-cover ratios, which rose to 2.96 for three-month bills, up from 2.82 in the previous auction. This suggests that for every three-month bill issued, nearly three times as many bids were made. The six-month bills also saw an increase in the ratio, rising to 2.90 from 2.79.

This indicates that institutions continue to view U.S. Treasury debt as a safe, low-risk investment. Treasury bills are highly liquid and preferred in the repo market, where short-term borrowing transactions take place.

The shift towards bonds reflects broader uncertainty in the global economy, exacerbated by President Trump’s ongoing trade war. Corporate earnings forecasts are becoming less reliable, with Bank of America’s 3-month guidance ratio dropping to 0.4x, its weakest level since April 2020. This suggests increasing uncertainty about future economic conditions.

Additionally, the probability of a U.S. recession now exceeds 50% on betting platforms, and rising yields on Japanese bonds are further complicating the outlook for risk assets, including Bitcoin.