Bitcoin Bulls Need Nearly $1B in ETF Inflows to Avoid Second-Largest Outflow on Record

Bitcoin (BTC $109,692) faces a major test this week as U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) require nearly $1 billion in inflows to prevent their second-largest outflow since inception.

Nasdaq-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, allow investors to gain exposure to BTC without holding the coins directly. These funds have collectively amassed $53.9 billion in investor capital, but August has seen a net outflow of $972 million—second only to the $3.56 billion exodus in February, according to SoSoValue. If the trend continues, it would end a four-month streak of inflows.

Analysts say weak ETF uptake has contributed to BTC’s underperformance this month. The cryptocurrency briefly reached a record high above $124,000 early August but has since hovered just above $100,000. “Seasonal headwinds may not last, but they are a reminder that flows and seasonality matter,” Matrixport noted in Tuesday’s Chart of the Day, advising caution despite potential macro and liquidity drivers.

Looking ahead, BTC could continue climbing toward year-end, with forecasts above $150,000 contingent on substantial capital inflows. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, estimates that hitting $150,000 would require roughly $404 billion in total inflows for 2025—meaning an additional $173 billion would need to flow into the market by year-end, roughly double combined allocations from Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy since January 2024.

Meanwhile, ether (ETH) ETFs have seen strong performance, with $3.23 billion in net inflows this month, continuing a winning streak since April.