Bitcoin Futures Spread Contracts, Signaling End of ‘Trump Bump’ Rally

Bitcoin’s post-election momentum appears to have faded as macroeconomic forces reclaim control over the market, reflected in a key futures market indicator.

The once-wide spread between CME’s continuous next-month and front-month Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts has tightened to $495—its lowest level since Nov. 5—after peaking at $1,705 in mid-December, according to TradingView data.

The contraction signals a cooling of bullish sentiment that emerged following Donald Trump’s election victory, when traders anticipated a more crypto-friendly White House.

“The narrowing spread suggests that traders are moderating their Bitcoin price expectations and shifting focus to broader economic factors,” said Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks.

Macro Pressures Take Center Stage

Bitcoin’s retreat aligns with broader market weakness. Since early February, BTC has dropped 20%, while the Nasdaq has declined 8%, driven by a combination of geopolitical risks, trade policy shifts, and economic uncertainty.

Compounding Bitcoin’s struggles was the market’s lukewarm reaction to Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement. While some expected the U.S. government to start acquiring BTC, the plan instead revolves around holding seized assets.

“Investors had hoped for a purchasing strategy, but instead, the government simply committed to not selling confiscated Bitcoin,” said Ian Balina, CEO of Token Metrics. “This led to a sharp decline in price as expectations were adjusted.”

Futures Market Still in Contango

Despite the narrowing spread between near-term contracts, the Bitcoin futures curve remains in contango, meaning long-dated contracts continue to trade at a premium.

This market structure is common due to storage and financing costs, as well as expectations of long-term price appreciation.

“The fact that perpetual funding rates are still positive and the futures market remains in contango suggests that the recent move was driven by spot selling rather than a structural market breakdown,” Erdösi noted.

With the Trump-fueled optimism now fading, Bitcoin’s price action will likely hinge on macroeconomic trends, regulatory clarity, and institutional adoption moving forward.