Bitcoin is entering a critical stretch of the week with leverage falling sharply and the $76,000-$77,000 support area coming into focus. Open interest has dropped 13.5% over the past 10 days, declining from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC, while Bitcoin’s price has fallen only about 5%.

The disparity suggests that traders have been reducing derivatives exposure at a faster pace than the underlying asset has declined, pointing to a deliberate move to lower risk.

Bitcoin is currently below $77,000 after reaching $82,300 on September 3. The cryptocurrency has been relatively stable over the past 24 hours, leaving traders focused on whether the recent deleveraging will help establish a stronger floor near $76,000-$77,000.

If support fails, the market could become increasingly dependent on fresh spot demand and ETF inflows to absorb selling pressure.

CLARITY Act Vote Adds to Market Uncertainty

One of the biggest catalysts is the Senate’s upcoming vote on the CLARITY Act. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has scheduled the cloture vote for 2:15 p.m. Eastern today, providing the legislation with its first full-Senate test.

Republicans control 53 Senate seats, leaving the bill dependent on at least seven Democratic votes if all Republicans remain united behind it. The number of Democratic votes required would rise if any Republican senator defects.

A revised 630-page version released September 10 incorporates more than 114 provisions requested by Democrats. The legislation also introduces a registration category for “non-decentralized” DeFi protocols where identifiable operators oversee consensus rules or other core functions.

The new definition does not include distributed ledger technology or raw software code.

Fed Rate Decision Could Add More Volatility

Bitcoin traders are also positioning around the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, which is expected within 72 hours of the current market snapshot.

Rate futures were pricing in a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point hike as of September 10, compared with 52.2% one month earlier. The increase represents a significant shift from the rate-cut expectations that had previously influenced crypto markets.

The repricing has added another layer of uncertainty for Bitcoin as investors assess whether tighter monetary policy could pressure risk assets.

Open Interest Falls Before Major Catalysts

The decline in open interest is particularly notable because it occurred before the CLARITY vote and Fed decision. Bitcoin derivatives positions have fallen by 43,346 BTC, indicating that traders are proactively reducing exposure rather than reacting to a major post-event sell-off.

The move suggests that investors view leveraged positions as too risky ahead of two events with potentially binary outcomes.

ETF flows are providing another signal. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw $19.23 million in redemptions on September 11, the largest daily outflow among U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs that day. The withdrawal represented only around 0.03% of IBIT’s reported $60.6 billion in assets.

Even relatively small ETF flows can matter because Bitcoin exposure is heavily concentrated in a few large funds. Redemptions can translate into spot selling, potentially having a greater impact when the freely available supply of Bitcoin is limited.

August provided the opposite example. Three weeks of inflows totaling $3.8 billion helped lift Bitcoin from approximately $63,000 to $81,700.

$76K-$77K Support Becomes Critical

Bitcoin’s technical indicators remain divided. TradingView’s weekly assessment continues to signal a buy, supported by stronger long-term indicators, while several shorter-term gauges remain neutral.

InvestTech currently has an overall hold rating, but its one-to-six-week outlook is negative. The model identifies a breakdown from a horizontal channel and places nearby support around $77,200.

The $76,500 mark is an important threshold for the short-term outlook. A clear break below it could reinforce the bearish setup and expose Bitcoin to deeper losses, while a sustained hold could help stabilize the market.

On-chain analyst Garrett Jin estimates a 70% probability that $60,000 will represent the cycle bottom, suggesting that the current consolidation could still have significant downside room if key support levels break.

For now, traders appear to be preparing rather than committing to a direction. Leverage has been reduced, ETF-related exposure has softened and more capital appears to be sitting on the sidelines.

With the CLARITY vote and Fed decision approaching, Bitcoin’s next major move may depend less on positioning today and more on how the market responds once both catalysts are resolved.