XRP closed at approximately $1.35 yesterday after touching $1.43 two sessions earlier. Analyst Ali Martinez has identified $1.38 as the key resistance level that XRP needs to overcome to confirm a bullish breakout. A successful move above that threshold could create room for a climb toward $1.60, although the setup remains dependent on XRP maintaining its current range.

Martinez, who publishes market analysis as Ali Charts on X, says XRP is forming a triangle bounded by support at $1.31-$1.35 and resistance at $1.38. As the pattern approaches its apex, defending the support area will be crucial for the bullish structure. A convincing break above $1.38 could confirm the triangle breakout and potentially increase upward momentum.

Conversely, a decline below $1.31 could damage the near-term bullish outlook. Martinez noted that such a move could cause the current support zone to become resistance during a potential recovery.

$1.38 Holds Key Importance for XRP

Cost-basis data indicates that more than 4.8 billion XRP were accumulated within the $1.31-$1.38 range. The concentration of purchases could make this area an important demand zone if holders continue defending their entry prices.

Above $1.38, XRP faces another significant supply cluster. Around 1.99 billion XRP were purchased near $1.60, while an additional 1.98 billion XRP were acquired around $1.68. This positioning makes $1.60 an important potential resistance level if XRP manages to break through $1.38.

Futures Data Adds to the Bullish Setup

XRP’s derivatives market is also showing an interesting trend. Total futures open interest declined by about 16%, falling from 2.77 billion XRP on August 17 to 2.34 billion XRP on August 31. Despite the reduction in open positions, XRP gained almost 40% during the same period.

That divergence suggests the rally was not primarily powered by traders taking on larger amounts of leverage.

CME open interest, meanwhile, increased approximately 36% to 387 million XRP. CME’s share of overall XRP futures exposure consequently climbed from around 10% to 17%.

The increase could signal stronger participation from institutional and professional traders, although CME futures can also be used to hedge existing positions. Therefore, the rise does not necessarily indicate outright bullish positioning.

The $1.38 resistance also overlaps with another important technical barrier formed by moving averages. A decisive move above the level would therefore be important for confirming the bullish scenario and clearing some of the resistance currently limiting XRP’s upside.