Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted roughly $424 million in fresh investments over three consecutive trading days, indicating renewed institutional demand. However, the latest inflows have failed to support BTC above $80,000, with the cryptocurrency reversing its initial gains after the Federal Reserve announced a divided decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Selling pressure in semiconductor and technology stocks has further weakened market sentiment.

On Wednesday, October 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $137.3 million in net inflows, extending their positive streak to three sessions. During the same period, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate between 3.75% and 4%, although two policymakers favored raising rates by 25 basis points.

Bitcoin initially responded positively, climbing to $81,788 following the announcement. However, the rally quickly faded, with BTC dropping to $79,710 during overnight trading as weakness across technology shares spread to the cryptocurrency market.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $79,899, representing a 1.2% decline over 24 hours and a 4.4% loss for October. If the monthly decline continues, October will mark Bitcoin’s second consecutive losing month.

As November approaches, traders are preparing for several important developments, including the U.S. midterm elections, upcoming inflation and employment figures, and the Federal Reserve’s December policy decision. Prediction markets currently place the probability of another rate increase at approximately 79%.

Bitcoin ETFs Attract $424 Million as Institutional Demand Returns

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $424 million in combined inflows over three trading sessions, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) receiving the majority of the latest investment.

SoSoValue’s daily figures reveal the following breakdown:

• October 26: The funds attracted $110.3 million, with the entire amount flowing into BlackRock’s IBIT.
• October 27: Total inflows reached $176 million, and all 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs registered positive flows.
• October 28: Another $137.3 million entered the funds, including $136 million for IBIT and $1.3 million for Bitwise’s BITB.

The latest inflows represent a recovery following substantial withdrawals earlier in the month. On October 22, investors pulled approximately $635.6 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single day, marking their largest daily outflow since June. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC each recorded withdrawals exceeding $200 million.

By October 26, October’s cumulative ETF flows were still approximately $202 million negative. The subsequent two sessions reversed the trend, bringing the monthly total to roughly $110 million in positive territory.

Across the 12 funds, combined assets under management have reached approximately $104.9 billion, equivalent to around 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total market value. Since their launch in January 2024, these investment products have accumulated $57.6 billion in net inflows.

BlackRock’s IBIT remains the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, with approximately $66.1 billion in assets.

Federal Reserve’s Divided Decision Sends Bitcoin Below $80,000

The Federal Reserve maintained its existing interest rate range, but the latest announcement exposed differences among policymakers regarding the direction of monetary policy.

The decision passed with a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack supported a quarter-point rate increase instead of maintaining current borrowing costs.

In its statement, the central bank described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace while acknowledging that inflation remained elevated. Policymakers also indicated that future decisions would depend on additional economic information.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided offering a specific outlook for December. During his press conference, he said forward guidance was unnecessary unless exceptional circumstances or a crisis emerged. He also rejected suggestions that political considerations influenced the decision, which arrived just six days before the U.S. midterm elections.

The two dissenting votes strengthened expectations of tighter monetary policy. Polymarket’s December interest rate market placed the probability of a 25-basis-point increase at approximately 77%, close to its pre-meeting level.

Bitcoin initially gained momentum following the announcement. BTC traded around $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET before rising approximately 1.1% to $81,788 over the next two hours.

The recovery subsequently reversed during Asian trading. Samsung’s semiconductor division reported weaker-than-expected results, sending its shares down more than 5% and putting additional pressure on technology stocks.

Bitcoin fell to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC, while leveraged cryptocurrency liquidations exceeded $350 million over a 24-hour period.

Bitcoin Outlook for November: Elections, Inflation and Jobs Data in Focus

Several upcoming economic and political developments could influence Bitcoin’s direction throughout November and shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.

The important dates include:

• October 29: September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and third-quarter GDP figures are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Coinbase and Strategy will publish their earnings after market hours.
• October 30: Deribit’s monthly Bitcoin options expiry involves approximately 135,700 BTC in outstanding contracts, valued at around $10.8 billion.
• November 3: U.S. midterm elections could influence financial market sentiment.
• November 6: The October employment report will provide fresh information about labor market conditions following September’s addition of 29,000 jobs.
• November 10: The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for release. September’s annual inflation rate reached 3.7%.
• December 9: The Federal Reserve will announce its next interest rate decision.

Although November is traditionally considered a favorable month for Bitcoin, historical performance suggests that investors should not automatically expect another rally.

Binance data indicates that Bitcoin recorded positive returns in only three of the previous eight Novembers. The strongest performances occurred in 2020 and 2024, when BTC advanced 42.8% and 37.2%, respectively. Both rallies followed presidential elections.

The two midterm election years produced significantly weaker results. Bitcoin declined 36.6% in November 2018 and 16.2% in November 2022.

However, the historical sample is relatively limited, and both negative November performances occurred during broader cryptocurrency bear markets.

Options traders are also showing limited expectations for an unusually large price movement. Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options, stood at 36.5 on Wednesday, slightly below the 37–39 range recorded over the previous two weeks.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: $79,221 Remains an Important Support

Bitcoin’s short-term technical outlook remains uncertain as the cryptocurrency struggles to recover above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).

BTC is trading around $79,899 on Binance, below the 50-day EMA at $80,789. The price has moved above and below this indicator three times over the past week, highlighting the ongoing battle between buyers and sellers.

The October 24 low of $79,221 represents the nearest major support level. Defending this price region could help prevent additional selling pressure as November begins.

The longer-term technical structure remains comparatively stable. Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA has gradually increased from approximately $72,300 in late August to $76,476. Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA moved above the 200-day EMA on September 12, marking the first bullish crossover since November 2025.

The key price levels to monitor are:

• Resistance at $84,898: The October 21 high represents an important barrier for buyers attempting to restart the previous rally.
• Immediate support at $79,221: The October 24 low remains the first major downside level.
• Lower support between $76,264 and $76,476: This region combines the September 2 low with the current 200-day EMA.

Despite the return of institutional ETF buying, Bitcoin remains exposed to uncertainty surrounding monetary policy and movements in technology stocks. Stronger investment demand could support a recovery, but persistent macroeconomic concerns may continue to restrict upward momentum.

The upcoming PCE inflation figures and November 6 employment report will provide important clues about the Federal Reserve’s next decision. Until then, Bitcoin’s ability to defend $79,221 and reclaim its 50-day EMA near $80,789 could determine whether BTC enters November with renewed strength or faces another round of selling.