JPMorgan Asset Management projects Bitcoin will generate annualized returns of 10% over the next decade, potentially outperforming U.S. stocks, bonds and gold, according to its latest long-term market outlook.

The forecast appears in the firm’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, published Tuesday. JPMorgan outlined a range of possible outcomes for Bitcoin, with its base case calling for a 10% annual return, its bullish scenario projecting 17% and its bearish case anticipating a 9.7% annualized decline.

The bank’s outlook for traditional investments is more modest. It expects U.S. bonds to deliver annual returns of 5.6% to 6.6%, large-cap U.S. equities to gain 7.5%, small-cap stocks to return 7.7% and gold to rise 5.5% annually.

JPMorgan has not previously published a specific range of projected Bitcoin returns in its research, making the latest report a first for the bank.

However, the forecast does not indicate that JPMorgan has abandoned its cautious stance on digital assets. The bank’s relationship with Bitcoin has long been influenced by CEO Jamie Dimon, who famously called the cryptocurrency a “fraud” in 2017. While his rhetoric has moderated over the years, he has remained skeptical.

JPMorgan Asset Management warned that Bitcoin’s volatility and inconsistent correlations with other investments continue to create challenges for investors considering adding it to diversified portfolios.

The firm also refrained from recommending Bitcoin as a portfolio-diversification instrument. Portfolio manager Dr. Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo instead described it as a speculative asset that may serve as a hedge against monetary easing.

They said Bitcoin’s role in a portfolio is largely tied to expectations of fiat currency expansion or the possibility of future asset trading taking place on blockchain networks.

The executives added that Bitcoin typically trades like a high-beta risk asset that follows global money supply growth, although some market participants treat it as “digital gold.” Its shifting correlations with other assets make portfolio risk assessments more difficult. They also noted that Bitcoin’s lack of conventional cash flows complicates long-term valuation, with adoption, regulation and liquidity likely to influence its performance alongside technological developments.

Update (Oct. 20, 13:15 UTC): The report is published by JPMorgan Asset Management.