Bitcoin Breaks Below Key 200-Day Average as Dollar Strengthens Despite U.S.-China Trade Breakthrough

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its losses Thursday, slipping under the critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $109,380, a move that signals potential downside momentum as the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. BTC last traded near $109,950, down roughly 2% on the day.

The technical breakdown could prompt additional selling from momentum and chart-driven traders, raising the risk of a drop toward the $100,000 level or lower. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against major global currencies, climbed to 99.72 — its highest reading since August 1 — supported by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks downplaying expectations of another rate cut in December and the Bank of Japan’s continued dovish stance, which weakened the yen.

Bitcoin’s decline came even as macro headlines turned positive. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached an early trade agreement that included a reduction of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%, as well as commitments from Beijing to purchase U.S. soybeans, secure rare earth supplies, and curb fentanyl trafficking. Despite the encouraging developments, crypto markets failed to respond, suggesting waning demand and risk appetite among digital asset investors.

Broader crypto sentiment mirrored bitcoin’s weakness. XRP (XRP) traded at $2.50 and appeared on the verge of confirming a “death cross” — a bearish chart pattern formed when the 50-day SMA drops below the 200-day SMA. Solana (SOL), meanwhile, slipped to $186.36 despite strong early inflows into Bitwise’s recently launched SOL spot ETF.

For now, traders are watching whether bitcoin can reclaim its 200-day average to restore short-term momentum, or if continued dollar strength will deepen the correction across the crypto market.