Bitcoin Traders Eye ‘Santa Rally’ as Policy Shifts and Accumulation Trends Build Year-End Momentum

Analysts say strategic accumulation, liquidity tailwinds, and potential U.S. stimulus could set the stage for a December rebound.

Bitcoin’s subdued October may be laying the groundwork for a classic year-end rebound — the so-called “Santa Claus rally” that has historically lifted digital assets during December’s lighter trading conditions.

Data from Coinglass indicates that Bitcoin has finished six of the past eight Decembers in positive territory, logging gains between 8% and 46%. The trend highlights a consistent seasonal bias toward strength at year-end, even amid broader market uncertainty.

“We’re seeing a clear transition from panic selling to strategic accumulation among long-term holders,” said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, in a Telegram note. “That, combined with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued institutional inflows, sets the market up for a resilient Santa rally.”

A Santa rally typically occurs when traders re-enter risk assets toward the end of the year, fueled by optimism, portfolio rebalancing, and thinner holiday liquidity — conditions that can amplify price moves. In the crypto market, it often signals a pivot from profit-taking to renewed accumulation ahead of the new year, influencing both sentiment and liquidity across the ecosystem.

---

Liquidity Hopes Rise on ‘Tariff Dividend’ Proposal

One new potential catalyst is U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal for a $2,000 “tariff dividend” stimulus check, part of a broader economic plan that also includes 50-year mortgages aimed at easing housing costs.

“The concept echoes the COVID-era stimulus checks that directly boosted household liquidity and risk asset prices,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus. “Ultra-long mortgages expand credit leverage, while the dividend effectively injects spending power — both function as liquidity easing measures that support risk-on sentiment.”

Fan added that markets are already treating the proposal as a de facto liquidity expansion, with risk assets responding positively in early trading.

---

A Shift in Bitcoin’s Volatility Structure

While short-term traders anticipate a December rally, some analysts suggest Bitcoin may be entering a new volatility regime — one shaped less by retail speculation and more by structural liquidity and institutional positioning.

“Bitcoin’s volatility in 2026 will likely remain structurally elevated, but for more mature reasons,” said Rachel Lin, CEO and co-founder of SynFutures. “It’s not about meme-driven swings anymore. It’s about how institutional flows, derivatives markets, and liquidity interact within a tighter global financial environment.”

Lin noted Bitcoin’s historical 0.6–0.7 correlation with U.S. liquidity measures, such as the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and M2 money supply growth. “If central banks pause easing or re-tighten in response to tariff-driven inflation — scenarios flagged by the IMF and BIS — volatility could spike again quickly,” she said.

---

Accumulation Builds Despite Weak Price Action

Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped about 3% so far in November, extending October’s choppy action. However, on-chain data suggests accumulation by smaller investors even as larger holders remain cautious.

Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC have been net sellers for three consecutive months, unwinding positions built during the first-quarter ETF inflows. Conversely, wallets holding under 1,000 BTC have been steadily adding to their balances, providing a base of support.

If historical patterns hold — and with fresh liquidity potentially entering the system through fiscal initiatives — crypto markets could once again follow their seasonal script: quiet skepticism giving way to year-end euphoria.