Bitcoin’s Recovery Suggests Its Midterm Cycle Bottom May Be Behind It

Bitcoin’s historical bear-market lows have typically formed after U.S. midterm elections. This year’s price rebound, however, points to the possibility that the market reached its bottom months before the upcoming vote.

With the Nov. 3 midterm elections approaching, Bitcoin is entering a period that has coincided with major cycle lows in the past. Yet its July price bottom and subsequent recovery suggest the current cycle may be following a different timeline.

July’s $57,850 Low Breaks From Previous Election Cycles

Bitcoin’s major bear-market bottoms in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022 all occurred after the preceding midterm elections. The lows came approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively.

The 2026 cycle has unfolded differently. Bitcoin dropped to $57,850 on July 1, roughly 125 days before the Nov. 3 election. By Oct. 22, its price had rebounded to around $81,455, placing it approximately 40% above the July low.

Earlier cycles also saw considerable losses in the run-up to midterm elections. Bitcoin declined about 29% during the six months before the 2018 vote and approximately 37% in the equivalent period ahead of the 2022 election.

Midterm Trends in Technology Stocks Vary

The Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, has also experienced notable declines around some midterm elections.

In 2018, QQQ fell around 23% from the end of September to its December low, with much of the drop occurring after the election. The fund also lost approximately 17% in the three months preceding the 2022 midterms.

However, the 2014 period showed the opposite trend, as QQQ climbed 17% over the six months before that year’s election. The mixed results suggest that midterm timing alone does not reliably predict stock-market performance.

BTC’s Three-Month Performance Remains Stronger

Bitcoin and QQQ have each fallen about 6% over the past 30 days. Across the past 90 days, Bitcoin has gained approximately 26%, while QQQ has advanced just 3%.

QQQ’s recent weakness follows its Oct. 6 record high of $762.86.

The data suggests Bitcoin’s recurring midterm-year declines may reflect its broader market cycle rather than a direct response to election timing. Since Bitcoin has already recovered significantly from its July low, investors may need to consider the possibility that the traditional post-midterm bottom pattern will not repeat this year.