The October flash crash shattered confidence in bitcoin’s rally and revealed a deeper shift in how the world’s largest cryptocurrency is being valued.

At the start of 2025, expectations for bitcoin’s bull market were lofty, with some analysts predicting prices would climb to between $180,000 and $200,000 by year-end. In one respect, the rally did prove historic — just not in the way many had expected.

Bitcoin raced to a record high above $126,200 on Oct. 6, reaching its peak earlier than most forecasting models had projected. That momentum reversed sharply just days later, when a sudden flash crash on Oct. 10 sent prices tumbling and highlighted the ongoing vulnerability of digital-asset markets to abrupt shifts in liquidity.

Since that high, bitcoin has dropped around 30% and now trades more than 50% below many of the optimistic forecasts made earlier in the year. Instead of extending its gains, the cryptocurrency is down roughly 6% in 2025 and has spent much of the past two months confined to a range between $83,000 and $96,000, according to TradingView data.

The selloff caught traders by surprise, erasing months of leveraged bullish positioning in a matter of minutes. But the episode did not mark a structural failure, according to Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics. Rather, he said, it reflected a broader repricing as bitcoin becomes increasingly intertwined with global macro conditions.

“Bitcoin was repriced as a risk asset, not a revolution,” Greenspan said.

“The October 10 flash crash wasn’t a failure,” he added. “It was a liquidity-driven event fueled by macro stress, trade-war fears and crowded positioning, showing how front-loaded the cycle had become.”

The abrupt shift in market dynamics has since made forecasting more difficult, prompting even some of the crypto industry’s most recognizable voices to revisit their assumptions.