Bitwise Predicts Record-Breaking Bitcoin ETF Inflows in Q4

Flows into Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are on track to hit record levels in Q4, driven by broader institutional access, macroeconomic tailwinds, and Bitcoin’s rally above $125,000, according to crypto asset manager Bitwise.

Earlier this year, Bitwise projected that 2025 Bitcoin ETF inflows would surpass the previous record of $36 billion set in the first year of ETFs. Through September, roughly $22.5 billion had already been recorded, leaving a strong finish likely to push totals well beyond that mark, the firm said in a report Tuesday.

A major catalyst came on October 1, when Morgan Stanley (MS) cleared its 16,000 advisers, overseeing $2 trillion in assets, to allocate to crypto, noted Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. Other major firms, including Wells Fargo (WFC), have followed suit, while UBS (UBS) and Merrill Lynch may soon join. Although adoption by these platforms is usually gradual, demand from advisers has been building for months.

Macro trends are also boosting momentum. The so-called “debasement trade” — favoring gold and Bitcoin amid currency dilution — has gained traction after the U.S. money supply surged 44% since 2020, Hougan said.

Bitcoin’s price rally further amplifies flows. The cryptocurrency surged past $100,000 and traded above $125,000 in early October, up roughly 9% in the first week of the month. Historically, such price gains have drawn fresh ETF inflows.

The fourth quarter is already off to a strong start, with $3.5 billion in net flows recorded in the first four trading days, pushing year-to-date totals to $25.9 billion. With two months remaining, Bitwise sees a new quarterly record well within reach.