Bloomberg: Most Spot Crypto ETFs Have 90%+ Approval Odds, Except SUI

21 June 2025

The majority of spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) awaiting decisions from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are now seen as highly likely to gain approval, with only SUI lagging behind, according to Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas.

“We are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” Seyffart wrote on X, noting that ongoing engagement from the SEC signals a positive shift in regulatory attitudes toward crypto products.

ETFs tied to assets such as Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano are all now projected to have a 90% or higher chance of getting the green light, the analysts said.

Their optimistic outlook follows a wave of regulatory developments, including numerous 19b-4 acknowledgements and S-1 amendment requests from the SEC—an indication that the agency is actively collaborating with issuers rather than dismissing applications outright.

The lone exception is SUI, whose ETF filing comes exclusively from Canary. Bloomberg estimates only a 60% chance of approval for the fund, citing the absence of regulated futures markets for SUI and ongoing regulatory uncertainty around the asset.

Optimism is also running high among prediction markets. On Polymarket, bettors currently assign a 98% probability that an XRP ETF will be approved this year, a 91% chance for a Solana ETF, and a 71% likelihood that a Dogecoin ETF will secure SEC approval.