Bitcoin CME Futures Spread Falls to $495, Reversing Post-Trump Rally

The belief that a pro-crypto President would fuel a lasting market rally appears to be fading, with macroeconomic factors reclaiming center stage in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.

After Donald Trump’s victory on Nov. 5, Bitcoin experienced a surge in bullish sentiment. However, that optimism has now evaporated, as reflected in the shrinking spread between CME bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts.

The spread between “continuous” next-month and front-month BTC futures has declined to $495—the lowest since Nov. 5—after previously reaching a peak of $1,705 on Dec. 17, according to TradingView data. This full retracement suggests that market enthusiasm following Trump’s election has completely subsided.

“A narrowing spread between front-month and next-month CME Bitcoin futures indicates traders are scaling back their price expectations,” explained Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, in an interview with CoinDesk.

The reversal of the so-called “Trump bump” implies that investors are shifting their attention away from political narratives and back to broader economic indicators as the primary market drivers.

“We’ve observed a notable repricing in the front contract basis since March, signaling that the excitement surrounding Trump’s election has been fully absorbed into the market,” Erdösi added.

This shift is reflected in market performance. Since early February, Bitcoin has dropped 20%, while the Nasdaq, a tech-focused stock index, has fallen 8%. Multiple factors, including geopolitical risks, Trump’s new tariffs, and concerns about inflation and economic growth, have contributed to this decline.

Adding to the market’s disappointment was the lack of new Bitcoin acquisitions in Trump’s Strategic Digital Asset Reserve plan. Last week, the President signed an executive order establishing a strategic reserve composed of BTC seized through legal enforcement actions.

“The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement did not meet market expectations. Many traders hoped the reserve would actively acquire new Bitcoin, but instead, the policy was simply to hold onto confiscated BTC without selling it. While this move is fundamentally positive, it still led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price,” noted Ian Balina, CEO of Token Metrics, in a statement to CoinDesk.

Futures Market Still in Contango

Despite the compression of the CME Bitcoin futures spread, the broader market structure remains in contango, meaning that longer-term futures contracts continue to trade at a premium to shorter-term contracts. This is a common occurrence in futures markets due to factors such as storage costs, financing, and expectations for future price increases.

“Perpetual funding rates remain positive, and the futures market is still in contango, suggesting that the recent decline is being driven more by unleveraged spot selling rather than a systemic market downturn,” Erdösi observed.

As traders continue to navigate shifting macroeconomic conditions, market participants will be watching closely for signs of renewed momentum in Bitcoin’s price action.