Bitcoin News: BTC briefly rose to $67,217 on Monday before slipping back to roughly $66,500 on Tuesday, posting a modest 0.3% gain over 24 hours—well short of the broader macro-driven relief seen across global markets.

Optimism surrounding a potential Iran agreement pushed the S&P 500 up 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 higher by 3.1%, yet crypto markets lagged noticeably. This disconnect between equity performance and Bitcoin’s muted response reflects a deeper sense of caution among traders.

The explanation is straightforward: the market is not rejecting the Iran narrative, but it is not fully pricing it in either. After two earlier ceasefire-driven rallies that ultimately reversed this year, participants are waiting for confirmation—specifically the expected June 19 signing in Switzerland—before assigning any lasting value to the development.

Bitcoin News: Why BTC Isn’t Tracking Risk Assets

On Monday, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed an electronic memorandum of understanding with Iran, with Trump stating that the Strait of Hormuz—already partially open—would be fully reopened by Friday.

Oil markets reacted sharply, with Brent crude dropping below $80 per barrel, marking its steepest one-day decline in over two weeks. Risk assets followed, as Asian equities surged more than 3% and US stocks posted strong gains.

Bitcoin, however, showed limited reaction. Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis, noted that despite a more than 4% drop in oil and strong gains in equities, BTC barely moved. He described the move as a “relief reaction the market hasn’t fully committed to,” rather than a clear shift into risk-on positioning.

A closer look at the Hormuz agreement supports this cautious stance. For geopolitical easing to translate into sustained crypto demand, stronger structural confirmation is required—something that remains absent for now.

This hesitation is rooted in recent price behavior. Bitcoin initially rallied following the April ceasefire but later erased those gains, with a similar pattern seen after the failed June 9 escalation. Now, with a third attempt at de-escalation underway, uncertainty remains elevated. Trump also warned that the deal could collapse if Iran refuses to halt its nuclear program, reinforcing doubts about its durability. The market is not ignoring the development—it is questioning its reliability.

ETF Outflows Point to Weak Institutional Demand

Underlying demand remains fragile. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded four consecutive weeks of outflows totaling approximately $5.4 billion, including a record weekly withdrawal of nearly $3.4 billion.

Although this outflow streak has recently paused, there is little evidence of a meaningful return of institutional buyers. Profit-taking during Monday’s overnight session further highlights the lack of sustained demand, with no strong bid stepping in to absorb supply.

One supportive factor is the continued movement of Bitcoin off exchanges into cold storage, gradually tightening available supply. While structurally positive, this reflects supply-side dynamics rather than a clear demand recovery.

Altcoins Outperform as Capital Rotates

Ethereum and Solana outperformed on the day, with ETH rising 2.8% to $1,784 (up 5.8% on the week) and SOL gaining 4.4% to $75.

Ethereum’s rebound following the Hormuz developments suggests selective risk appetite rather than a broad-based crypto rally. The stronger performance among altcoins points to capital rotation rather than renewed institutional focus on Bitcoin.

XRP and HYPE also gained 3.2% and 6.3%, respectively, reinforcing the view that while gains are spread across the market, they remain relatively shallow from a Bitcoin-centric perspective.