Bitcoin Faces Risk of $80K Re-Test as Nasdaq Recovery Stalls

Bitcoin’s recent bounce to $86,271.54 looks increasingly vulnerable as the Nasdaq, Wall Street’s tech-heavy index, ran into resistance last week, hinting at potential downside for the leading cryptocurrency.

Since hitting $80,000 lows on Nov. 21, BTC staged a relief rally above $90,000, forming higher lows and highs within a broader downtrend. The recovery initially appeared supported by a weakening U.S. dollar following Wednesday’s Fed rate cut, and a long-term trend indicator suggested a possible bullish shift in BTC momentum.

However, gains proved short-lived. BTC retreated from $93,000 on Friday to near $88,000 on Sunday, before stabilizing around $89,600 at press time.

Bearish Weekly Pattern
BTC ended the week with a bearish weekly candle, featuring a long upper wick and a small red body with minimal lower wick, signaling rejection above $94,000. This classic pattern reflects fading bullish momentum and suggests that “sell-the-rallies” dynamics remain dominant. Coupled with Nasdaq’s stalled rebound from November lows, this raises the risk of a deeper BTC drop toward $80,000.

Nasdaq’s Struggle and Broader Risk Signals
The Nasdaq fell nearly 2% last week, forming a bearish engulfing candle that reversed prior gains. A bearish weekly MACD reinforces the possibility of downside volatility spilling into BTC, given the historically strong correlation between the two, particularly during NDX downtrends.

The MOVE index, which tracks 30-day implied volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, also flashed a cautionary signal. Last week’s inverted hammer candle suggests an early bullish reversal in volatility, which can tighten financial conditions globally and cap gains in risk assets. Historically, BTC tends to move inversely to the MOVE index, implying potential headwinds ahead.

Key Levels to Watch
Technically, BTC is more likely to break down from its current counter-trend channel than push higher. A re-test of $80,000 lows is plausible if selling pressure persists. On the upside, BTC would need to clear $94,000–$95,000 to reclaim short-term bullishness, with heavy resistance expected between $96,000 and $100,000, including the 50-day SMA and Ichimoku cloud.