The odds of the crypto market structure bill passing this year climbed to 43% on prediction markets, recovering from last week’s record low. However, the reports behind the move remain unconfirmed, and no official version of the bill has been released.

Polymarket traders significantly increased the chances of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 after reports indicated that President Trump had reached a deal on the ethics provision that had delayed the legislation.

The market’s probability estimate for the crypto framework bill being signed into law rose to roughly 43% on Monday, compared with 32% on Friday, when it hit its lowest point since trading began in January.

The sharp increase followed reports that negotiators had potentially resolved the final major disagreement preventing the bill from moving forward after months of discussions.

Despite the market reaction, Democrats have not reviewed the latest bill language, according to a source familiar with the matter cited by CoinDesk. No updated draft has been publicly shared, and neither the White House nor the offices of the senators involved have issued statements regarding the reports.

The ethics provision has been the final significant hurdle for the Clarity Act, which aims to introduce the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for digital assets. The legislation would establish clearer boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding crypto oversight.

The debate has centered on concerns about whether elected officials and government representatives should be able to earn profits from crypto-related activities while serving in office. The issue gained additional attention due to Trump’s involvement in memecoins and his family’s connection to World Liberty Financial, which recent financial filings showed generated millions of dollars.

The ethics proposal was reportedly discussed during a July 16 meeting involving Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. The Senate is expected to vote on the measure before the early August deadline.

Crypto markets extended their gains on Monday as the reports spread. Bitcoin traded around $66,300, rising nearly 3% over 24 hours, while Ether and XRP advanced by about 4%.

Although the reported Clarity Act breakthrough supported market sentiment, traders pointed to the rebound in artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks as the main driver behind the rally. A recovery in chipmakers such as Samsung and SK Hynix helped lift broader risk assets, while the legislative developments added further optimism.