Bitcoin is heading toward its weakest weekly performance since March, as U.S. demand indicators deteriorate amid a widening Coinbase premium and record activity in spot ETFs.

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index—which tracks the price spread between bitcoin on Coinbase and the broader global market—has slipped to -0.15%, its deepest negative divergence since the first quarter. A negative premium indicates bitcoin is trading at a discount on Coinbase, typically signaling soft U.S. demand, increased selling pressure, and reduced institutional participation. The downtrend began after the Oct. 10 crypto liquidation event and has continued throughout November.

The sentiment shift comes as bitcoin (BTC$90,722.88) heads for its worst week since early March. The cryptocurrency is down more than 11%, having briefly dropped below $81,000 before recovering to around $84,000. November has been particularly brutal, with BTC falling 23%, marking its steepest monthly decline since June 2022, when it slid 38%.

A Capitulation Event in the Making?

The weakening mood is also reflected in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which experienced consistent outflows for most of November.
Read More: Bitcoin ETFs Have Bled a Record $3.79B in November

Friday, however, broke the pattern. ETFs saw $238.4 million in inflows—the largest since Nov. 11—according to Farside data. It was also a record-setting trading day, with the suite of ETFs generating $11.5 billion in volume, per Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed $8 billion to that total.

Balchunas added that IBIT experienced a record week for put volume, suggesting investors may be using options to hedge their long exposure. “This is one thing that may help people stay the course—they can always buy some puts as a hedge while staying long,” he noted.

With bitcoin now down 36% from its October all-time high, Friday’s surge in volume may reflect a capitulation event, which often precedes local market bottoms. While not definitive, the data suggests bitcoin could be attempting to find support in the low $80,000 range.

Supporting this view, Glassnode reported over $4 billion in realized bitcoin losses on Friday—the highest since March 2023 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis—offering yet another sign of potential capitulation.