Crypto prices came under renewed pressure on Monday, September 28, prompting traders to ask why the market is falling today. Total crypto market capitalization declined about 2% to nearly $2.9 trillion after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin retreated toward $82,000 after briefly moving above $85,000. Ethereum traded near $2,650, while XRP held below $1.50, interrupting the market’s September recovery.

The latest weakness reflects several forces at once, including higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The Trump-Iran dispute has added another layer of uncertainty, but it is only one part of the broader market picture.

Oil Prices Become a Fresh Concern for Crypto

Iran proposed at the UN General Assembly a seven-day reopening of the Strait of Hormuz alongside a pause in fighting before broader negotiations. Trump rejected the proposal.

Trump said Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon” and called for the conflict to end “very soon.” He also left open the possibility of additional strikes before the November midterm elections. No new military action had been confirmed as of publication.

The potential effect on crypto markets is being transmitted mainly through energy prices. WTI crude climbed above $93 during early Monday trading, while the Strait of Hormuz remains an important passage for oil and liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf.

Higher crude prices can increase inflation concerns and complicate the outlook for interest rates. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen above 5% since the conflict began, adding pressure to risk-sensitive assets.

That backdrop could weaken the leveraged buying that previously helped Bitcoin recover above $85,000. It does not, however, establish that Trump’s rejection of the Iranian proposal was solely responsible for Monday’s decline.

$330 Million in Liquidations Hit Traders

Crypto sentiment remains relatively strong despite the price weakness. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at 74, keeping the market in “Greed” territory. The reading was 70 both a day earlier and a week earlier.

The resilience in sentiment alongside falling prices points toward leverage being unwound rather than a complete reversal in market conviction.

CoinGlass reported approximately $330.18 million in liquidations during the previous 24 hours across 107,013 traders. Long positions accounted for $230.65 million, while short positions contributed $99.53 million.

Bitcoin saw $79.24 million in liquidations, Ethereum recorded $51.93 million and XRP accounted for $16.05 million. The biggest individual liquidation was a $6.54 million BTCUSDT position on Binance.

Fed Rate-Hike Bets Add to the Pressure

Expectations for Federal Reserve policy have also moved sharply. CME FedWatch data shows a 68.1% probability of a hike to 400–425 basis points at the October 28 meeting, compared with 57.6% a week earlier and 17.7% a month ago.

A combination of elevated oil prices and increased expectations for tighter monetary policy creates a more challenging backdrop for crypto. If energy costs keep inflation expectations elevated, the market could continue adjusting its expectations for the Fed.

Key Levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP

Bitcoin is currently facing resistance near $84,800. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said a breakout above that level could open the path toward $90,000.

Aksel Kibar has a more cautious interpretation, saying Bitcoin’s weekly candle around $84,000–$85,000 does not yet show a convincing breakout. Continued hesitation could therefore send the price back toward its established range.

Ethereum remains above its rising 20-day moving average near $2,602, with its daily RSI around 62. The reading indicates relatively strong momentum without suggesting an overheated market.

Ethereum’s next major resistance is around $2,807. A move below the 20-day average could expose the cryptocurrency to $2,426 and then the $2,265–$2,259 region.

XRP has struggled for approximately six weeks to overcome the $1.50–$1.60 resistance zone. That range continues to represent the token’s key technical barrier.

Economic Data Takes Center Stage

The coming economic releases could provide the next major catalyst for crypto markets. August personal income, spending and PCE inflation data are scheduled for September 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The September employment report follows on October 2, while the ISM manufacturing data is also due this week.

PCE is particularly important because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen expectations for an October rate hike, while softer data could lead traders to reassess those bets.

Oil and geopolitical developments will also remain on watch. Any renewed negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, a new reopening proposal or a ceasefire framework that reduces concerns about oil supplies could ease some of the pressure on risk assets.

For now, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $84,800 to bring the $90,000 level into focus. Ethereum’s ability to remain above $2,600 is important for its recovery structure, while XRP continues to face resistance below $1.50.