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Crypto markets extended their slide over the weekend, reinforcing a broader downtrend as shifting Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and thinning liquidity deepened the sell-off.
Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) remain firmly under pressure after a punishing weekend pushed both assets to fresh multi-month lows — BTC briefly touching $93,400 and ETH falling to $3,050. The retreat cemented a pattern of lower highs and lower lows across multiple timeframes, signaling that bearish momentum is becoming more entrenched.
Market structure also points to growing fragility. A further dip in BTC toward $92,840 could unlock roughly $62 million in forced liquidations, potentially accelerating a slide toward the next major support area near $87,500 — a level last tested in March.
The latest downturn comes amid a recalibration of expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Futures markets now assign just a 50% probability of a rate cut in December. Lower rates are typically viewed as supportive for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, by reducing the relative appeal of holding U.S. dollars.
Derivatives Positioning Shows Persistent Risk-Off Tone
Capital continues to bleed from the crypto derivatives market, with open interest (OI) falling across most major futures contracts over the past 24 hours. BTC and ETH futures OI both declined, while ZEC and LTC saw sharper drops of more than 6% and 10%, respectively. XRP and ADA were the only notable exceptions, each recording a modest OI increase of just over 1%.
Options activity on Deribit reinforces the cautious sentiment. BTC traders remain skewed toward puts, reflecting expectations for further downside, while short-dated volatility has climbed above an annualized 50%. ETH options also lean bearish.
Block flow trends highlight defensive strategies: BTC iron condors and strangles dominated positioning, while ETH flows were led by call calendar spreads, which represented more than half of total activity.
Altcoins Stay Weak as Liquidity Vanishes
Altcoins continued to struggle after Friday’s sharp sell-off spilled into the weekend. While some large-cap tokens notched mild recoveries on Sunday, most remain down double digits over the past week.
Last week’s drawdown was exacerbated by scarce liquidity, leading to outsized downward moves. Solana (SOL) slid to a five-month low of $135, while ether hovered just above $3,000 — wiping out gains accumulated since July.
Even privacy coins have cooled. Zcash (ZEC), which recently surged from $41 to as high as $670 in a months-long rally, has begun to lose momentum.
Broader sentiment reflects the pressure. The Fear and Greed Index sits at extreme fear with a reading of 17/100 — its lowest since April. Meanwhile, CoinGlass’s average RSI indicator stands at 43.52, suggesting the market has not yet entered oversold conditions despite the widespread declines.
