Crypto markets held steady on Tuesday as traders awaited Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, with a 25-basis-point rate cut already largely baked into prices. Sentiment remained constructive, reflecting expectations that easier monetary policy will continue to support risk assets such as bitcoin.

Bitcoin traded around $92,300, up 2.3% over the past 24 hours, while ether outpaced the broader market with a 7% gain. Still, traders are bracing for turbulence. Fed days often spark sharp intraday swings, and even a broadly bullish 25 bps cut could trigger a classic “sell-the-news” response if investors judge near-term upside to be exhausted, pressuring prices and trapping late long positions.

BTC has spent the past week consolidating between $88,000 and $94,500, with a decisive break of either boundary likely to determine the next directional move.

Derivatives positioning

• Bitcoin’s one-day implied volatility on Volmex jumped to 67% from 20%, implying a roughly 3.5% expected daily move—elevated, but not extreme, suggesting the Fed decision isn’t expected to be a major shock.
• Ether’s implied move sits near 4.6%, while solana and XRP are priced for swings of around 5%.
• BTC’s options term structure is slightly inverted, with near-dated IV trading above longer-dated levels. A muted Fed outcome could quickly flatten the curve.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH puts continue to command premiums over calls. Recent block activity showed ETH straddles and strangles—positioning for volatility—while BTC flows skewed toward risk-reversal trades.
• Futures open interest climbed across most major tokens. ETH OI rose 8% to 12.4 million ETH, its highest since Dec. 2. Cardano OI briefly hit 1.80 billion ADA, the highest since Oct. 10.
• Funding rates for BCH, XMR, and WLFI are deeply negative, reflecting crowded short positions.
• On the CME, ether futures OI moved back above 2 million ETH, while BTC positioning remains near multi-month lows.

Token talk

Altcoins continue to lag despite ether’s standout performance following last week’s Fusaka upgrade. CoinMarketCap’s altcoin-season indicator sits at 16/100—a cycle low and a sharp reversal from September’s 78/100—highlighting traders’ preference for higher-liquidity majors ahead of the Fed decision.

HYPE has been among the weakest performers this week, sliding 15%, with STRK, KAS, and APT also posting double-digit declines. In contrast, AI-linked token FET gained 9.3% over the past 24 hours as it bounced from recent lows, though it remains down 1.6% on the week and more than 80% lower year-to-date.