Bitcoin held near weekly highs on Thursday as market concerns eased, though most altcoins remained subdued. Early signs of recovery are emerging despite broader downtrends across the crypto sector.

Bitcoin traded around $93,500, while Ether rose to $3,200 following the completion of its Fusaka upgrade. The Fear & Greed Index climbed to 27/100, moving out of the “extreme fear” zone, reflecting growing optimism among investors.

However, both Bitcoin and the majority of other tokens remain in downtrends dating back to early October, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. A decisive bullish reversal for Bitcoin would require a break above $98,500. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index added 1.13% over the past 24 hours, building on Tuesday’s rally.

Derivatives Positioning

• Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) dropped to 48.44%, the lowest since Nov. 14, after spiking to 65% on Nov. 21 when spot prices fell toward $80,000 on some exchanges. The decline suggests a low-volatility environment, supporting the bull case for spot Bitcoin.
• Ether’s volatility index fell to 72%, the lowest since Nov. 3.
• On Deribit, BTC puts continue to trade at a premium over calls across all expiries, while Ether options show mild bullishness after the August 2026 expiry, indicating ongoing demand for protective puts and call-overwriting strategies.
• The $100K BTC call remains the most popular options play, with $2.82 billion in open interest. Strangles dominated block flows for both BTC and Ether.
• Futures activity shows ZEC open interest up 6% in 24 hours, ETH OI up 4%, and FART futures seeing a 22% jump, signaling speculative activity.

Altcoin Market
The altcoin sector remains muted despite Bitcoin’s resilience. CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator fell to 20/100 from five points higher at the start of the month, reflecting investor preference for Bitcoin over riskier altcoins.

A few exceptions emerged in the past 24 hours: TAO, ENA, and AVAX posted gains between 4.5% and 8.5%. Conversely, Hedera (HBAR) slipped 3.8% as trading volume dropped 15% to $245 million, and momentum from a spot ETF launch faded.

Compared with late 2024, when the market was driven by viral memecoins and decentralized derivatives exchanges, the current altcoin market has matured, with token performance increasingly tied to development progress rather than speculation. This evolution may benefit upcoming cycles, as seen in the recent surge of privacy coins during periods when Bitcoin and Ether hit multi-month lows.

Privacy coins have now entered a corrective phase: ZEC has dropped 29.4% and DASH 22% over the past week following gains from September through November.