cpeditor
- Expanded Treasury buybacks, robust ETF inflows and a softer dollar have created the conditions for a major crypto breakout.
- Bitcoin surged 23.6% last week, delivering its second-strongest weekly performance since February 2021.
- BTC advanced from roughly $62,000 to almost $79,500 before easing back to around $77,000. Its only larger weekly gain since then came during the rally following the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023.
- Ether posted an even stronger performance, jumping 31.3% from below $1,900 to above $2,520 before retreating to just under $2,500.
- The rally followed months of consolidation, during which crypto prices remained largely range-bound, volatility fell to unusually low levels and investors continued accumulating.
- That prolonged compression left the market positioned for a sharp move once a significant catalyst arrived. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement of increased Treasury bond buybacks helped trigger the breakout by pushing yields and the dollar lower and improving the backdrop for risk assets.
- U.S.-listed spot ETFs provided another source of demand. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.92 billion in net inflows over the week, their largest weekly total since Oct. 10, when Bitcoin was trading close to its $126,000 record. Ether ETFs brought in $697 million, their strongest weekly inflow since early October 2025.
- The rally pushed both Bitcoin and Ether above their 200-day simple moving averages, an important gauge of longer-term trends. Their 50-day averages are also beginning to rise, raising the possibility of a golden cross, which occurs when the 50-day average moves above the 200-day average.
- The move has also revived interest in the “debasement trade,” a strategy centered on scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold as protection against declining fiat purchasing power from rising debt, money creation and persistent inflation.
- Gold has climbed back above $4,600, rising 15% over the past month and moving above its 200-day average of $4,504.
- Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY, has fallen to 98.9, below its 200-day average of 99.1.
- Lower yields and a weakening dollar have therefore added another layer of support for crypto, gold and other risk assets, reinforcing the recent market-wide rally.
