Crypto Sentiment Weakens, But Indicators Point to Short-Term Bottom
14/11/2025

Crypto markets are seeing a sharp rise in pessimism, yet data suggests this wave of fear could be signaling a short-term market bottom rather than the start of a deeper selloff.

Social sentiment around major tokens has deteriorated markedly in recent days, according to Santiment. Retail traders are increasingly defensive as prices grind lower, a pattern that historically emerges near market inflection points rather than at the onset of prolonged downtrends.

“Bitcoin dipping below $100K for the second time this month has sparked a wave of FUD and concern on social media,” Santiment reported. “Current sentiment indicators show Bitcoin with an unusually flat bullish-to-bearish ratio, Ethereum only slightly skewed positive, and XRP at one of its most fear-heavy readings of the year.”

On-chain metrics support a bottoming outlook. Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) ratio has fallen to 0.476, levels that historically coincide with short-term market lows. Past NUP readings of this magnitude have often preceded double-digit percentage rebounds for BTC.

The broader crypto market remains under pressure, with total capitalization declining toward $3.47 trillion, continuing a month-long downtrend. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that while short-term bottoming attempts are visible, rallies are still met with heavy selling, reflecting a medium-term correction rather than a structural market shift.

Bitcoin’s recent slide from around $102,500 to near $98,000 triggered realized losses among wallets that had purchased near $110,000. However, newer entrants are absorbing these flows, and institutional positioning remains cautiously bullish. According to Sygnum, 61% of institutions plan to increase crypto exposure ahead of potential altcoin ETF launches and upcoming regulatory developments in 2026.

Strategic accumulation is also evident. Strategy, one of the largest public Bitcoin holders, purchased 487 BTC last week at an average of $102,557, raising its total holdings to 641,692 BTC. Ethereum exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since May 2024, suggesting medium-term accumulation rather than distribution.

Despite weak retail sentiment, the combination of heavy liquidation clusters, declining exchange balances, and sustained institutional buying sets the stage for a reflexive rebound. Historically, these conditions have preceded short, sharp reversals rather than deeper, prolonged capitulation.

While retail traders step back, larger investors appear to be positioning for the next leg up, indicating that a short-term bottom may be forming across the crypto market.