Glassnode’s latest weekly report points to growing parallels between current bitcoin market conditions and the early phases of the 2022 crypto winter, citing rising supply in loss, softening spot demand and increasingly cautious derivatives positioning.

One of the most concerning signals is the rising risk of capitulation among top buyers. Glassnode’s supply quantiles cost-basis metric – which tracks the acquisition levels of the most recent and price-sensitive holders – shows that since mid-November, bitcoin’s spot price has slipped below the 0.75 quantile to trade near $96,100. This indicates that more than a quarter of the circulating supply is now underwater. A similar breakdown below the 0.75 level marked the onset of the 2022 bear market.

Total supply in loss has also climbed sharply. On a seven-day simple moving average, BTC supply in loss has reached 7.1 million coins, testing the upper bound of the 5 million to 7 million range observed in early 2022.

Despite mounting stress, realized capital inflows remain positive. Bitcoin’s realized cap net position change stands near $8.69 billion per month—healthy, but still far below the summer peak of $64.3 billion, according to Glassnode.

Off-chain indicators show further deterioration in demand. ETF flows continue to weaken, with BlackRock’s IBIT notching its sixth straight week of outflows—the longest negative stretch since the fund launched in January 2024. IBIT has now seen more than $2.7 billion in redemptions over the past five weeks.

Spot market activity is also softening. Glassnode notes that cumulative volume delta (CVD) has turned lower, with Binance CVD remaining persistently negative. The Coinbase premium, which briefly turned positive after an extended period in discount, appears poised to roll over once again.

Derivative markets echo the fading risk appetite. Open interest has trended lower from November into December, signaling reduced willingness to deploy leverage—especially following the Oct. 10 liquidation-driven flash crash. Perpetual funding rates remain largely neutral with intermittent negative prints, and the overall funding premium has cooled, suggesting a more balanced and less speculative environment.

Options flows underscore the market’s caution ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Traders are not positioning for a strong upside break, with more investors selling rather than chasing calls. Earlier in the week, put demand led the options market as bitcoin approached $80,000. As prices later steadied, flows shifted back toward calls, signaling a modest easing of investor anxiety