Bitcoin’s onchain indicators continue to flag supply overhang and subdued participation, even as markets increasingly price gold’s move above $5,000 as a durable macro regime shift rather than a transient rally.

Gold extended gains in early Asian hours, while bitcoin remained rangebound near $87,000, underscoring a crypto market stuck in low-conviction trading and constrained by internal supply dynamics. The divergence between the two assets appears structural, not sentiment-driven.

Data from CryptoQuant show bitcoin holders have begun realizing losses for the first time since October 2023. Longer-term holders are distributing into strength as newer buyers step in — a handoff that historically aligns with consolidation phases rather than renewed momentum.

Glassnode highlights persistent overhead supply as the primary constraint. Bitcoin continues to trade below short-term holder cost bases around $98,000, with a dense supply cluster above $100,000 likely to cap upside in the near term.

Recent price rebounds have triggered breakeven selling and loss-driven exits from investors who accumulated near the 2025 highs, reinforcing resistance and leaving rallies vulnerable.

Market mechanics support that assessment. Futures volumes remain compressed, leverage deployment is muted, and recent price action has occurred in thin liquidity rather than alongside broadening participation. Prediction markets echo the message: Polymarket traders are assigning higher probabilities to gold holding above $5,500 through mid-year, while increasingly betting on continued bitcoin consolidation.

For now, gold is acting as the primary absorber of macro uncertainty, while bitcoin remains in a digestion phase, working through internal supply rather than responding to external catalysts.

Market snapshot

• BTC: Bitcoin is hovering near $87,000, with overhead supply, limited participation, and subdued leverage keeping rallies fragile.
• ETH: Ether continues to lag bitcoin, reflecting weak demand, muted derivatives activity, and little evidence of rotation into higher-beta crypto assets.
• Gold: Gold surged to a fresh record above $5,000 an ounce, supported by geopolitical risks, sustained central-bank buying, and a weaker U.S. dollar.
• Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei slipped as Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed, with yen strength weighing on equities amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

If you want this shortened further, more macro-forward, or reworked into a headline-led Asia Brief, just say.