Has Bitcoin Peaked—or Is the Bull Run Still Gaining Momentum?
October 28, 2025

Bitcoin may be approaching its defining moment of the current cycle. Historical patterns hint at a market top, yet the broader structure and sentiment suggest the rally might not be finished just yet.

The key question for traders and investors remains: Did Bitcoin peak at $126,500 on Oct. 6, or is there more upside left in this cycle?

Every four years, the Bitcoin network undergoes a halving, reducing the issuance of new BTC by 50%. Historically, the most dramatic price surges have occurred about 18 months after these events. Yet this time, despite being within that window, Bitcoin has not shown the typical “blow-off top” behavior seen in past cycles.

As Bitcoin’s market capitalization grows and its inflation rate declines, the direct impact of each halving naturally becomes less pronounced. Still, long-term cycle patterns have remained consistent: three consecutive years of growth followed by one bearish correction. If 2023, 2024, and 2025 end in positive territory, some analysts expect 2026 to mark a down year.

However, several indicators argue the top isn’t in yet. Sentiment has yet to reach euphoric levels, volatility remains historically low, and on-chain activity lacks the manic characteristics that typically define major peaks.

Data shows that whales and long-term holders have been realizing profits near the $100,000 level, while older coins have begun moving amid low transaction fees and rising concerns over quantum security. Historically, these waves of profit-taking tend to end as sellers become exhausted and demand stabilizes.

Unlike the 2017 and 2021 peaks that occurred during Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycles, this cycle is unfolding amid an environment of monetary easing. The Fed has already cut rates by more than 100 basis points since September 2024, with another 25-basis-point cut expected this week and rates forecast to fall near 3.25–3.50% by early 2026. The central bank is also winding down quantitative tightening, a shift that could inject fresh liquidity and extend risk appetite across markets.

A defining feature of this cycle is the arrival of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in early 2024. Their introduction has stabilized price action—corrections have rarely exceeded 20%—while providing steady inflows and liquidity. The emergence of ETF options has further reshaped market dynamics, enabling institutions to hedge volatility and dampen extreme price swings.

This evolution has transformed Bitcoin into a more mature macro asset, meaning the explosive tops and crushing drawdowns of earlier eras may be less likely.

Meanwhile, gold, Bitcoin’s traditional inflation hedge counterpart, has pulled back about 10% from its highs, while Bitcoin has risen over 10% since early October. The pattern mirrors 2020’s setup, when gold peaked just before Bitcoin’s record-breaking rally began later that year.

Despite Bitcoin’s strength against the U.S. dollar, it remains below previous highs relative to other benchmarks — including the Magnificent 7 tech stocks (42 vs. 55 in 2021) and gold (around 40 ounces, similar to 2021 levels).

Macro conditions remain mixed: a U.S.–China tariff standoff, an ongoing government shutdown, and weak manufacturing data point to uncertainty, even as Trump’s reshoring initiatives and surging AI investments offer potential economic tailwinds.

Yet sentiment remains strikingly restrained. According to Coinglass, the market has spent 16 of the past 30 days in “fear” territory and only six in “neutral,” while volatility continues to hover near record lows — an unusual backdrop for a true market top.

In short, while some believe Bitcoin has already peaked this cycle, the data suggests otherwise: momentum, liquidity, and sentiment still leave room for another leg higher.