Bitcoin held above $78,000 on Tuesday despite weakness across most major cryptocurrencies, while HYPE climbed about 4% as markets increasingly priced in a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.

BTC was trading around $78,400 during Asian hours, showing little movement over the previous day. The cryptocurrency fluctuated between roughly $77,200 and $79,200, according to CoinDesk data.

Bitcoin gained 24% in August, marking its strongest monthly performance since November 2024. Strategy also resumed its Bitcoin buying last week, adding roughly $370 million worth of BTC after a pause of nearly two months.

HYPE led the large-cap market, rising about 4% to around $84. Ether declined approximately 1% to just above $2,440, while Solana slipped 1% to about $104. XRP remained below $1.40 and BNB traded near $693.

Tron and Dogecoin were among the weakest performers, each losing around 2%. Tron was near 33 cents, while Dogecoin traded around 8 cents.

Asian Risk Assets Weaken

The pressure was also visible in Asian markets. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined roughly 1% to around 25,300, with Tencent and Meituan both falling close to 3%.

Japan’s Nikkei slipped to approximately 66,185, while South Korea’s Kospi managed a slight gain as semiconductor stocks recovered.

Brent crude advanced nearly 1% to about $91 per barrel following US military action near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

Oil Complicates the Fed Outlook

The rise in oil prices is becoming an important factor for interest-rate expectations. The US 10-year Treasury yield moved up to 4.78%, while traders put the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the Sept. 16 meeting at roughly 64%.

Before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, the probability had been around 36%.

Gold also retreated to about $4,435 an ounce after rising 10% during August.

Yusuf Fakhro, a partner at ARP Digital, said Bitcoin’s ability to stay near $78,000 after a powerful monthly advance may be a stronger signal than the rally itself.

He highlighted the decline in perpetual futures open interest to its lowest level since May and strong demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs as evidence that the August rally was supported mainly by spot demand rather than heavy leverage.

Bitcoin ETF Rally Loses Momentum

ETF flows have since weakened. Wintermute recorded around $924 million in Bitcoin ETF inflows across nine consecutive positive sessions before a $202 million outflow on Friday ended the streak.

Bitcoin has also struggled to break through $82,000, with the level rejecting repeated attempts.

Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, said the market is tense but lacks a strong directional signal in the near term.

The next major market catalyst will be Friday’s US payrolls report, the final major labor-market reading before the September FOMC meeting. With rate-hike expectations already around 64%, a stronger-than-expected jobs figure could lift Treasury yields and increase pressure on Bitcoin, potentially pushing it back toward the $77,200 overnight low.