Bitcoin Seen Undervalued vs. Gold as Volatility Hits Record Lows, JPMorgan Says

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a discount relative to gold as its volatility drops to historic lows, according to a research note from Wall Street giant JPMorgan (JPM) on Thursday.

The bank highlighted that Bitcoin’s six-month rolling volatility has fallen from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to roughly 30%, marking a record low. As volatility converges with gold, BTC is now only about twice as volatile, the narrowest gap on record, the report noted.

JPMorgan analysts argued that this decline in volatility makes Bitcoin increasingly attractive for institutional portfolios. On a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin’s market capitalization would need to rise by roughly 13%, implying a price near $126,000, to match gold’s $5 trillion in private investment. By the bank’s calculations, BTC is currently undervalued by approximately $16,000 versus gold, leaving room for upside.

Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou linked the trend to accelerating corporate treasury adoption, with institutional holders now controlling over 6% of total BTC supply—a dynamic reminiscent of how central bank quantitative easing once reduced bond volatility.

Corporate adoption is further supported by inclusion in equity indexes, which attracts passive capital inflows. For example, Metaplanet (3350) was upgraded to FTSE Russell’s mid-cap category and added to global benchmarks, while Nasdaq-listed Kindly MD (NAKA) is pursuing a $5 billion raise following a $679 million Bitcoin acquisition.

New players, including ventures led by Adam Back, are positioning themselves to rival MARA Holdings’ treasury holdings, following in the footsteps of Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), JPMorgan noted.