Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Starts 2026 at “Almost Maximum Risk,” Focuses on Altcoins and Privacy Tokens

Arthur Hayes’ investment fund, Maelstrom, is kicking off 2026 with what Hayes calls “almost maximum risk” exposure, maintaining the aggressive posture it adopted in the second half of 2025 while keeping minimal stablecoin holdings.

In a note published Tuesday, Hayes said the fund remains heavily invested in risk assets, with a sharpened focus on privacy coins such as Zcash (ZEC) and emerging decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens, which now dominate the portfolio. “While we will continue to allocate spare cash from financing trades into Bitcoin, our dollar stablecoin position is very low,” he wrote.

The stance marks a reversal from Maelstrom’s early-2025 positioning, when Hayes predicted Bitcoin could fall as low as $70,000 amid a “mini financial crisis” before quantitative easing resumed. In May, he confirmed the fund had reduced risk and raised fiat, but by April, Maelstrom had returned to aggressive crypto exposure, going “maximum long” after Bitcoin briefly dipped below $85,000 amid tariff concerns.

Through the summer, Hayes described the fund as “backing up the truck” for a potential altcoin cycle, a conviction that persisted into year-end as Maelstrom added positions in privacy coins trading at what Hayes considered bargain prices. By December, with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and liquidity expansion, Hayes said it was “time to go shopping,” actively loading up on high-risk assets.

Hayes, widely recognized as a leading macro commentator in crypto, is betting that a combination of rising U.S. GDP, federal deficit spending, and expected Fed money printing will continue to support crypto prices. He expects this liquidity wave, reinforced by geopolitical events like U.S. intervention in Venezuela, to benefit riskier tokens the most.

Reflecting on 2025, Hayes described Maelstrom’s performance as profitable but uneven, citing strong returns from Bitcoin, HYPE, and PENDLE, offset by losses in tokens such as PUMP. Moving forward, the fund plans to concentrate on high-conviction narratives aligned with the broader liquidity environment.

The strategy coincides with Maelstrom’s disclosed strategic investment in River, a chain abstraction stablecoin startup, though financial terms were not revealed.