10x Research: MicroStrategy’s $18B Slide May Set Stage for Recovery

MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin (BTC $109,992.98), has seen its market value tumble by nearly $18 billion in recent months as enthusiasm for bitcoin-linked equities cooled and the company’s net asset value (NAV) premium evaporated.

Despite the steep decline, 10x Research’s Markus Thielen believes a rebound could be on the horizon. In a report released Wednesday, Thielen pointed to improving volatility trends, a potential third-quarter earnings beat, and renewed speculation about S&P 500 inclusion as near-term catalysts that could lift sentiment.

“With the NAV premium gone and volatility ticking higher, MicroStrategy looks attractive at current levels,” Thielen wrote. “At this stage, the stock arguably offers better value than bitcoin itself.”

MicroStrategy shares slipped 1.8% to below $280 on Wednesday, leaving its market capitalization only slightly above the value of the company’s bitcoin reserves — a sharp reversal from late 2024, when speculative premiums pushed the stock far beyond fundamentals.

Thielen said investor sentiment now appears “washed out” after a 40% decline since July, with retail activity subdued. He expects the company to report around $3.6 billion in profit this quarter due to mark-to-market gains on its bitcoin holdings, potentially reigniting interest from institutional investors.

According to Thielen, strong earnings could reopen the door to S&P 500 inclusion, which he assigns a 60–70% probability of being approved by December. Such a move could channel up to $28 billion in fund inflows, similar to post-inclusion rallies seen in Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD).

“Capitulation always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning,” Thielen said.